Parliamentary elections will take place in Moldova on November 30. Some of the political parties have already started, officially or not, electoral actions, while some haven't. IPN Agency set out to sketch the “portraits” of political parties as recorded by society's perception, before the official start of the electoral campaign. We consider this to be a useful exercise for Moldovan voters, who will gain additional and concentrated information that they may find useful on the day of elections, and also for the parties themselves, who will get some hints on how to improve their image. This portrait might also help to better understand what one or another Moldovan party wants to be and what it really is. To this goal, many experts have been asked to comment on the parties' chance to make it into the next Parliament, the way they fulfilled their previous electoral promises, the possible coalitions, topics, tactics and strategies they might employ to get the voters' attention. Political parties are presented in order of the number of seats they hold in the current Legislative and of the results obtained during the previous parliamentary elections in 2010.
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The Liberal Reformists Party (PLR) is supposed to have a good image, being the “savior of the government” and thus preventing early elections in the wake of the 2013 political crisis. Nonetheless, the party doesn't have many supporters, it looks as if it isn't fully formed yet and lacks leaders, which is a big handicap as Moldovans vote for leaders rather than parties. PLR candidates can make it into the Parliament only in a bloc or on the lists of other parties.
Victor Juc, of the Moldovan Academy of Sciences' Institute of Juridical and Political Research, says the voters' impression of PLR should be a good one because by splitting from the Liberal Party it brought the 7 votes needed to create a new government. The expert thinks PLR's sole message in the campaign should be “We saved the government”. The problem is that PLR fails to attract Liberal voters. It's paradoxical that PLR, with a good image, has no supporters, while the Liberal Party, with a tarnished image because of leader Mihai Ghimpu and failures of mayor Dorin Chirtoaca, still has its voters. The political analyst is skeptical regarding PLR's chances to clear the 6% electoral threshold. He suggests PLR should create a bloc with PLDM for two reasons. First, PLR representatives would make it into the Parliament and second, it would win a few more votes for this bloc.
Political strategist Olga Nicolenco agrees that the odds are against PLR making it into the next Legislative on its own, with a rather ordinary image and failing to attract former prime minister Ion Sturza, as previously announced. PLR's strong points remain its guts and political ambition.
Ion Tabarta, of the Institute of Political Consultancy and Analysis “Politicon”, says that PLR failed to assert itself on the political arena. The party's image matters a lot in Moldova, but PLR failed to find a strong leader. He thinks that the very search for one backfired. If the Liberal-Reformists hadn't announced targets like Ion Sturza or others and had instead focused on someone from their own team, there would have been more certainty regarding the party. PLR now looks like a party that isn't fully developed. Tabarta doesn't rule out PLR joining a bloc or its members running on other party's lists. The Liberal Reformists must evaluate their real potential: they have a nice party, with new practices, but won't have 7 seats in the next Parliament. However, should they succeed in recruiting Ion Sturza, this would boost their chances, but even Sturza is better known amongst the elites than the rural population.
Political expert Denis Cenusa says PLR has a similar image to PL, but its core is made up of people who left the Liberal Party and have been labeled traitors, an accusation that weighs much in Moldova. Cenusa is certain PLR can't be part of the next Parliament unless running in a bloc, but can't think of anyone wanting to give the party a ride. Theoretically, he admits some PLR members could run on the lists of other parties, but the competition is bitter and the parties have their own candidates.
Political analyst Nicolae Negru notes that PLR played a decisive role in appointing the Leanca Government and in avoiding early elections. The party must be given credit for this, but its lacks attractive leaders. Ion Hadarca, head of PLR, isn't well-known among the current generation. His phlegmatic, intellectual style of not pushing his way to the forefront will cost the party, as people vote precisely for party leaders. According to Negru, even Sturza joining PLR, as previously rumored, might not turn the odds. He thinks PLR could win over half of PL's voters as many Liberal mayors joined PLR and they can influence local voters. The expert suggests PL and PLR should make peace and create an electoral bloc, but the polls don't favor PLR and Mihai Ghimpu is vengeful, so this is an unlikely scenario. The Liberal-Reformist could also join with PLDM in a bloc, if their leaders are realists and open to negotiation.
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As part of this campaign, IPN has already published a review of the experts' opinions on the Communists' Party of Moldova, the Liberal-Democratic Party of Moldova, the Democratic Party of Moldova and the Liberal Party of Moldova.
Mariana Galben, IPN
