The rate of inflation rose from 2.4% at the end of last year to 5.1% his March, being within the targeted limits set by the National Bank of Moldova, governor Sergiu Cioclea said on May 4, IPN reports.
In March, the annual basic inflation rate was by 0.3 percentage points higher than a month ago, being of 4.6%. The basic inflation that cannot be influenced by the monetary policy also increased.
Among the external inflationist risks, Sergiu Cioclea mentioned the rise in food prices on the international market, alongside the volatility of oil and natural gas prices. The possible internal risks and uncertainty about inflation derive from the persistence of excessive liquidity in the banking sector and the impact of the rise in excise duties on cigarettes and other products and the harvest in agriculture in 2017. Also, the regulated prices of electric power and natural gas and the prices of medical services grew in the first quarter of this year. The latter weren’t taken into account in the forecast made at the beginning of this year. Also, an economic recovery was witnessed at internal level and in the commercial partner states. The population’s demand increased.
The governor noted the annual rate of inflation is expected to have an ascending trajectory until the fourth quarter and will then decrease towards the end of 2018. This will return to the limits of the variation interval of ± 1.5 percentage points from the inflation target of 5% by the end of the period covered by the forecast.
The average annual rate of inflation for 2017 is forecast at 6.8%. In 2018 the rate of inflation will be of 5.1%.
