The National Institute for Economic Research has updated its economic growth forecast for 2017, given the developments in the first semester and some indicators recorded in August and September. The new forecast is of 2.4%, which is lower than the figure projected at the start of the year and in May, IPN reports.
Positive trends were witnessed in the first half of the year, such as the growth in external trade and the rise in the amounts collected into the budget. Also, for the first time in the last few years investments increased, but not enough to play a decisive role in the formation of the GDP, said the Institute’s director Alexandru Stratan.
On the other hand, some of the important indicators in GDP formation are lower than the projected ones. For example, the Institute anticipated a 4.2% growth in industry, but the growth is of only 1.2% and was seen especially in August and September. As to agriculture, even if the situation seems to have improved during the last few months, this sector will not stage a 4.2% growth, as it was forecast.
The rise in exports will come to 12% towards yearend, but will be under the 16% increase in imports and the balance-of-trade deficit will thus increase. Alexandru Stratan also reminded of the rise in the state debt following the issuing of securities instead of the loan released to the banking sector.
“Thus, we consider this is a real forecast even if it is under the levels forecast by the Ministry of Economy and Infrastructure and international financial organizations,” stated Alexandru Stratan.
He noted that Moldova’s GDP represents about ¾ of the GDP of the 1990s. “It is good that the country’s economy follows positive trends, but an economic growth of 9-10% a year during a longer period is needed to ensure a significant change,” added Alexandru Stratan.
