National Bank's forecast 'not a promise, but an assessment'

For the first time since its incorporation the National Bank of Moldova (BNM) has compiled a medium-term (2-year) macroeconomic forecast. The forecast, published in the Monetary Policy Report, no.1/2010, is a comprehensive assessment of the current macroeconomic state, including the tendencies of the macroeconomic indicators, the monetary aggregates, the development of inflation, the explanation of the monetary policy decisions, the BNM said in a press release, quoted by Info-Prim Neo. In compiling the forecast the central bank used the most recent available data and hypotheses concerning the internal and external economic environments. The medium-term macroeconomic forecast presents the developments of the inflation, the GDP and other indicators in the period from 2010 to 2011, provided that the monetary policies pursued remain neutral. The central bank underlines that the forecast is not a promise, but only an assessment. The bank said that the degree of probability and the possible deviations of the internal and external forecasts may alter the BNM's figures presented in the report. The factors that may affect them are inflation factors (increase in energy prices following a better-than-expected recovery of the global economies; the rise in food prices globally; modification of taxes, duties and excises; rise in government-controlled prices) as well as disinflation factors (worse-than-expected global recovery; worse-than-expected rise in internal demand; crediting of the national economy under the expected level). Depending on data collected during the year, BNM may modify its medium-term macroeconomic forecast and adjust the monetary policy accordingly. The Monetary Policy Report aims to inform the general public about the current developments of the national economy, inflation expectations, possible developments of the inflation and disinflation factors, and the monetary policy decisions adopted by the BNM Board with a view to containing inflation.