The household debt in 2018 reached 9.2% of the Gross Domestic Product, but this year will come close to 11% of the GDP, which is five times more than 15 years ago, economist of the Institute for Development and Social Initiative “Viitorul” Veaceslav Ioniță wrote on his blog, being quoted by IPN.
According to the economist, the household debt in Moldova is six times lower than the European average and almost two times lower than the average of the countries of the region. Aster the crisis of 2014, the private individuals became clients of the financial sector and the tendency will persist the next few years. Most probably, this year or in at most two-three years, the value of loans released to private individuals will exceed the value of loans provided to legal entities.
According to an analysis, the households raise consumer loans, home loans and loans for purchasing cars or starting a business. The economist makes reference to the data of the National Bank of Moldova, the National Commission for Financial Markets and the National Bureau of Statistics, which say the households in 2018 borrowed 4.8 billion lei, which is four times higher than the average for the past few years. Until 2014 the loans released by banks to private individuals represented 15% of the loans, but in 2018 the figure rose to 40%.
The banking sector remains the main lender to households with a share of 53.8%. It is followed by the micro-finance companies with 36%.
For 2019-2020, Veaceslav Ioniță anticipates a significant growth in the loans offered to legal entities, by at least 4.55-6 billion lei a year. This will lead to a 1.5-2% annual rise in the household debt, which is 15% of the GDP during the next three-four years. This level is comparable with the regional average.
According to the expert, Moldova actively enters the era of loan-driven consumption and the financial institutions should accelerate the launch of their products on the market so as not to lose the market share.
