Moldovan economy shows signs of cooling down

Over the last months, Moldovan economy has shown clear signs of cooling down. This assessment was voiced at a round table where the Independent Analytic Center “Expert-Grup” presented its new analytical product - the Composite Anticipatory Index of Moldovan Economy, Info-Prim Neo reports. Program director Adrian Lupusor declared that the need to improve the capacity to prevent and manage possible negative tendencies in national economy is essential to the success of a governing team. In most countries, statistical data about the Gross Domestic Product is published quarterly. Other statistics come later. For example, the final figures of exports, imports and investments in 2011 were published only in March 2012. Using a tool like the Composite Anticipatory Index, which will be calculated monthly, will help preventing some negative trends in the main sectors of economy, said Adrian Lupusor. The Composite Anticipatory Index will be calculated from data showing both internal and external economic trends and the companies’ expectations. This will allow the government to feel the pulse of economy and make adequate changes in public policies. Similar tools are used in other countries. Even early in 2008, when other statistical indicators didn’t show any visible risks, the Composite Anticipatory Index signaled the slowing down of economic growth, which was followed by the financial-economic crisis in 2009. As to the current trends in Moldovan economy read by the Index, Expert-Grup stresses the vulnerability to external shocks, the European sovereign debt crisis. The growth of exports slowed down, remittances are decreasing, especially those from European countries, and subsequently the mass of money in circulation decreases. The indicator of industrial production dropped to the negative zone since December last year. A pronounced recession is felt in the transports sector. The amount of transported goods decreased by 6.9% in December 2011, by 11.8% in January 2012 and by 39.2% in February 2012, compared to the same period last year.