In the absence of elections and with a confortable monocolor government, 2022 will be a relatively quiet and stable from political viewpoint. The Republic of Moldova will remain fully depend on the relations between the West and the East, underscoring its quality of consumer of regional security and a certain victim of the hybrid war that has lasted for three decades already, Ion Manole, executive director of Promo-LEX Association, stated for the publication “Predictions 2022”, IPN reports.
Ion Manole said the military events in Eastern Ukraine, the recovery of control over the administration in Minsk and the use of waves of emigrants to destabilize the situation on the border between Poland and Lithonia will be extended in 2022 even if the discussions will seem to satisfy everyone more and less. The attacks and threats will acquire new forms by applying older scenarios adjusted every time to the new circumstances. The Republic of Moldova will most probably not be attacked at military level as the attacks and provocations against its vulnerable sectors, such as the economic and energy ones, will be more efficient.
The director of Promo-LEX said that 2021 was a year when the regime in Tiraspol strengthened its positions. Under the protectorate of its founders, the Transnistrian region kept control over the sources of income and all the buttons and important financial flows. Given the tense relations and risks of a war between Russia and Ukraine and due to the internal political crisis, the Republic of Moldova in 2021 was unable to advance in the Transnistrian issue. Moreover, contrary to expectations, the new government hasn’t initiated consultations on a new policy in the field.
There is no certainty that the Transnistrian settlement process will be productive this year or there will be positive preconditions for the Republic of Moldova to ensure the implementation of its objectives related to the strengthening of national security in the conflict zone.
The guarantees concerning the rights and freedoms of the people living in the eastern districts of the Republic of Moldova should be addressed as essential and should not be treated formally. “The year 2022 can offer a good chance to this process if the constitutional authorities have the capacity to realize the problems from all aspects and engage, in a correct and democratic way, all the relevant players, including the inhabitants of the Transnistrian region, in a process of prioritizing and identifying solutions,” stated Ion Manole.
