Moldova must define neutrality term so as to exclude certain risks in Transnistrian settlement, British expert considers

The Republic of Moldova must clearly define the neutrality term in order to exclude certain risks that can appear in the process of settling the Transnistrian dispute, considers James Sherr, program director for Russia/Eurasia at Chatham House of the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London. The British expert made in Chisinau a presentation themed “Moldova’s Neutrality: opportunities and risks”, organized by the Foreign Policy Association of Moldova as part of the Transnistrian Dialogue Project, Info-Prim Neo reports. The expert said that the neutrality term stipulated in the Constitution of Moldova has taken deep roots in the vocabulary of the Moldovan officials. They consider that the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict on the basis of the neutrality principle will be provided in an agreement guaranteed by all the sides involved in the negotiating process. The Moldovan authorities see no divergences between the neutrality status and its bid for European integration. On the other hand, officials from Transnistria and the Kremlin consider that the principle of neutrality is fully incompatible not only with the accession to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), but also to the European Union, the British expert said. James Sherr warns that if the conflict is solved by granting broad autonomy to Transnistria and the veto right in the Moldovan Parliament, Moldova will have to decide what is more important for it: sovereignty or the resolution of the dispute. According to the analyst, Russia has lately pursued a more flexible policy as regards the Transnistrian conflict. It is confident in itself and considers that the dispute could be solved to its advantage – “in exchange for the settlement, it will ask Moldova’s sovereignty, the expert says. Russia wants to prove that the conflict can be solved by other ways than those used in Kosovo. It wants to show Ukraine that the path to NATO is not the best solution and to prove to the whole world that though its relations with Georgia are problematic, it is not a ‘hooligan’ that behaves badly towards its neighbors, James Sherr explains. On the other hand, the expert stressed that the Transnistrian case is not a priority for the EU at the moment as the community is preoccupied mainly with discussions on the EU’s future. Attending the debates, Dmitrii Danilov, the European security programs director at the Institute of Europe of the Academy of Sciences of Russia, said that the neutrality status is inevitable if Moldova wants to be reunified. The country must be reunited by taking into account Russia’s interests and namely the opposition to NATO’s extension and the demilitarization of the unified state, the Russian expert considers. But the demilitarization is impossible without neutrality, he said. At the same time, Dmitrii Danilov considers that Moldova must choose between the integration into the EU and the reintegration process within the CIS. President Vladimir Voronin has chosen the EU and this means that the internal policy will be adjusted to the communitarian acquis. This factor will strain the Moldovan-Russian relations, including in the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict, the analyst said. Moldova’s European integration goal is fully incompatible with Russia’s interests in the region and the post-Soviet reintegration policy. Dmitrii Danilov considers that the integration into the EU runs counter to Moldova’s interests as well. The expert doubts that Moldova is ready to make big sacrifices as the first EU members did for the sake of the European integration. Both of the experts consider that Russia’s role in the geopolitical context became considerably stronger, while the tense relations between Russia and the EU reached a peak. Earlier, the West could ignore what was said and written in Russia. Now, it is seen as a force that has a say, James Sherr said. It is obvious that the EU and Russia have different opinions on their future relations. Both of the sides are looking for a joint strategy. When the president of Russia was replaced, the Kremlin understood that it should restore the relations with the EU, Dmitrii Danilov said.