Moldova is close to an acute demographic crisis. Info-Prim Neo analysis

Moldova’s population until 2016 will grow much older and this will lead to an acute nationwide demographic crisis, say experts. The phenomenon is the result of the falling birth rate, rising mortality and excessive flight of labor. [The number of pensioners will double] The demographic crisis will be partially caused by the significant rise in the number of pensioners, which will increase by 30% until 2016, demographer Valeriu Sainsus said. According to him, the people able to work would probably have to make double effort at work in order to maintain the elderly and this can lead to social conflicts. The ageing of the population is the result of the rise in the average length of life. This means that the people of pre-pensioning age will grow in number. Consequently, the productivity will be lower and this is inconsistent with the development level of the economy of a state, Valeriu Sainsus said. Experts propose increasing gradually the pensioning age by one month for the next generation. This way, the generation of the 50s will retire not at the age of 62, but at 62 and a month. This will bring about 300 million lei into the state budget, Valeriu Sainsus estimates. In order to avoid conflicts between generations, a large part of the population of pensioning age should remain employed and excluded gradually. This is advantageous also because the workforce will continue to include highly qualified specialists. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, 491,000 people aged 60 and over lived in Moldova at the start of 2007. More than a half of these (61%) were women. Each fourth elderly person was aged between 60 and 64, while 12.8% were persons older than 80. Moldova’s population is growing order also owing to the fall in the birth rate. According to statistics, about 150,000 babies were born in Moldova each year until the 90s. Now, this figure stands at 50,000-70,000 newborns a year. Many couples postpone giving birth to the first child. If the number of newborns decreases to fewer than 50,000 annually, Moldova will face a demographic crisis, the national demographers say. [The labor force is diminishing] As the population grows older, Moldova will experience a shortage of workforce. From 2007, the number of people available for work started to decrease and there will be more vacancies the next years, specialists say. This will enable the persons of pensioning age to keep their jobs until they are able to. Moldova should accept workforce from abroad if it is more qualified and to create a favorable climate for attracting it. A rigorous control is needed over the economic migrants when employing foreign workers. There should be fixed the number of foreigners that can be employed, says the coordinator for the UN Population Fund, Olga Poalelungi. Statistics show that the national labor market becomes less attractive. This is proven by the falling employment rate among persons aged 15-64. In the first half of this year, this rate was 39.4%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points compared with the corresponding period last year. [Restrictions on migration will not solve the demographic crisis] The economic crisis and the wide discrepancies between salaries determine the permanent migration of the population. Demographer Valeriu Sainsus considers that the problem could be solved by signing bilateral agreements, especially with the neighboring states. This will enable the Moldovans working abroad to leave and return without problems. The restrictions on migration will not solve the problem, but will stimulate migration. An opinion poll shows that at least 34% of the Moldovans are ready to migrate. Most of these say that they want to find a job abroad. The demographic policies should center on the family. Approximately 30% of the Moldovans do not go abroad because they do not want to leave their families. The institution of a “national model family” (both parents and two children) could be the main lever for reducing the number of divorces, experts consider. The new demographic policy must be coherent. The state should assume at least one third of all the sacrifices made by the young families in raising a generation. International expert Wolfgang Lutz considers that, in order to cope with a demographic crisis, the authorities should implement a well-structured strategy, a program that would envision the reformation of the education and health systems, improvement of the labor market system and remedying of the economic problems that made Moldova one of the poorest countries in the world. According to the Ministry of Information Development, over 7,000 persons left Moldova last year to settle abroad. The stable population of Moldova on January 1, 2008 numbered over 3.4 million, including 2 million in rural areas. More than 2,000 migrants arrived in Moldova in 2007. Out of these, 554 persons obtained the right of abode, while 1,516 persons received permits of staying for a fixed period. The Austrian International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis estimates that in 2130, Moldova will have only 1.5 million inhabitants.