The Moldovan leu started to lose ground to the main foreign currencies. Contacted by IPN to comment on the variations of the past week, Alexandru Fala, expert of the independent think tank “Expert-Grup”, said the variations are small and momentary and there are now no factors that could significantly influence the relationship between the leu and the main foreign currencies.
“Since 2016, the leu has constantly appreciated against the U.S. dollar. What has happened during the past week is not a change in trends. I think it is rather an episodic development and the previous tendency will soon return. I see no unordinary situations now. If the exchange rate against the dollar exceeded 17 lei, we could call this depreciation,” said the expert.
Alexandru Fala said that if exports and remittances continue to grow and there are currency flows related to foreign investment, this tendency of appreciation of the leu against the dollar will continue. The leu – euro relationship depends mainly on the international markets.
Economist Sveatoslav Mihalache has told IPN that even if the money transfers from abroad in foreign currency in 2017 were larger than in 2016, the figures do not point to the stability of the national currency. The Moldovan leu in 2018-2019 will continue to depreciate slightly both against the US dollar and against the euro. The appreciation tendency is over. This appreciation is beneficial neither to business entities nor to economic growth.
The expert forecasts that in 2018 the exchange rate of the leu against the dollar can reach 17.50 lei and the leu could continue to depreciate to 18.40 in 2019. The same will happen in the case of the euro, which depends on the international markets. In the immediate period, the euro will oscillate on foreign markets between 1.17 dollars, the lower limit, and 1.27 dollars, the upper limit. In relation to the Moldovan leu, a euro will vary between 20.20 and 22.10 lei.
At the start of this week, a dollar cost 16.63 lei, while towards the end of the week – 16.76 lei. A euro on February 12 cost 20.36 lei, while on February 16 - 20.90 lei. According to the National Bank of Moldova, on February 17 and 18 a dollar will cost 16.76 lei, while a euro – 20.90 lei.
