Last “EU Epistle” to Moldovans: triumphal call or voice crying in the wilderness?... Info-Prim Neo analysis

Today, October 25, the Council of Europe will start the procedure for liberalizing the visa regime for Moldovan travelers. In 18 months, the Moldovans would be able to travel visa-free in Europe if they duly and clearly decipher this last message addressed to them. During several months, the EU, through all its components, has sent clear and frequent signals of support to Moldova, to the progress made by it during the last year in implementing internal reforms and on the European integration path. The last assessment in this respect was formulated in a Resolution of the European Parliament adopted in the middle of last week. Taken together, as importance for the country’s destiny, these messages-signals are like the Epistles of St Paul for Corintenians. The EU also gives Moldova advice, support, prospects... Will the Moldovans be able and want to decipher the ‘epistles’ before the November 28 early legislative elections? [Support to the AEI... ] The launch of the plan of action for liberalizing the visa regime and the promise to finish the procedure during a year and a half represent first of all approval of Moldova’s capacity to meet, in a short period of time, the requirements imposed by the EU. A more serious assessment of the implemented reforms was given in the European Parliament’s Resolution adopted in the middle of last week. It was preceded by an unprecedented meeting of EU foreign ministers and ambassadors in Chisinau, which was also attended by high-ranking officials of the European Commission and the European Parliament. There are voices in the EU that have not been expressed so far. According to them, the Association Agreement between the EU and Moldova can be regarded as a clear prospect of Moldova being accepted into the European family. In their form, the EU messages support Moldova as a whole, but in essence they support the ruling Alliance for European Integration (AEI) because the results to which the EU points refer to this one year that the Liberal-Democrat coalition had at the disposal. Unlike the former Communist administration that benefited from two consecutive mandates, it did not enjoy political, economic, financial and social stability. These are pro-AEI signals sent during the election campaign as well. Though the message is indirect, it can be interpreted as follows: “Moldova and the Moldovans will enjoy full EU support on the Europeans integration path if the initiated reforms are continued. These reforms can be continued if persons who are able to continue them come to power after the November parliamentary elections. The AEI showed it is able to...” [What the EU knows and we probably don’t... ] In Moldova, the EU has started an unprecedented and rather dangerous campaign for its image so that we can presume the stake at the geopolitical level and not only is high. The geopolitical aspect can be noticed in the recent Resolution of the European Parliament and in the bi- and trilateral actions over the Transnistrian conflict between Germany and France, which are high-ranking players in the EU, on the one hand, and Russia on the other hand. It is not excluded that the situation is now favorable for Moldova as the parties are ready to more intensely cooperate in resolving the Transnistrian conflict as a gesture of goodwill for promoting their own interests within other European projects. This gives the EU the role of Moldova’s advocate in relation to its strategic partner – Russia. It is yet more important what the EU understood about Moldova during the last year. It seems that the EU knows something about what can happen in and with Moldova after the elections under certain political circumstances, and that ‘something’ poses danger if not to the region where it is situated then to Moldova itself. First of all, the EU understood and admitted only now that the previous administrations during eight years had pretended to be implementing internal reforms and making effort to come closer to the EU. The European Union, as well as the Council of Europe and other important international organizations, indirectly bear responsibility for this as, in a way, it allowed being deluded. Then, the EU realized that the country will be ‘yielded’ to the East rather than the West if the Communists Party (PCRM) comes again to power as it will again start playing roles in the best case. Maybe the EU convinced itself that the PCRM it is not yet able to abandon its intransigent and hostile behavior towards all the other political forces in the country so that it will not be able to form a viable coalition. A new wave of early elections would mean dangerous escalation of instability in Moldova and at the border with the EU. At the same time, the AEI sowed it can govern and even reform this country despite the mistakes made. The EU also understood that, maybe regretfully, the AEI and the PCRM are the only forces that will seriously fight for power. In the current or slightly changed format, the AEI will form a center-right governing alliance after the elections or the PCRM, with certain partners, will form a center-left alliance. Tertium non datur because the so-called ’third force’ only stated its appearance, but did not prove its existence. The EU ‘staked’ on one of the two real players. The European Union realized that the ruling alliance, for objective and subjective reasons, does not enjoy sufficient support among the population to win the elections and thus resorted to this image transfer. At this stage, the EU is convinced that the Moldovans have become already part of Europe, in the countries where they work officially or non-officially, by their assiduousness and decency and their non-conflictual character. Therefore, Moldova became less dangerous and even attractive in the EU’s eyes. In this respect, the “EU’s Epistles” target three groups: the AEI, the PCRM and the Moldovan voters. The reaction of the power and the Opposition is known, but the reaction of the population is yet unclear. [The AEI’s reaction to the “EU’s Epistles”] ”Most of the political leaders with which I met made it clear that they will try to put into practice the idea of supporting Moldova’s internal unity. I hope this will happen,” MEP Adrian Severin stated for Info-Prim Neo late last month, when asked to share his impressions about the reaction of the Moldovan political class to the messages conveyed by the European officials at the meeting in Chisinau. It seems that the EU remained contented with the results of that visit as it was followed by the Resolution of the European Parliament. It is true that the components of the AEU continued to argue after they made promises to the European officials (amendment of the 2010 budget, suspension of the ministers from posts for the period of the election campaign), but the first weeks of the campaign show the member parties of the alliance do not fight to the death and leave room for negotiations within a new coalition. However, the AEI does not fully realize that the support offered by the EU does not mean support from the electorate and the voters should be convinced again as one year ago. Anyway, the period in power gives the ruling parties certain favors, but their image can be affected, mainly in the case of the AEI as voters’ expectations for change were very high. Thus, the components of the ruling alliance interpret the messages of the EU in a euphoric way, as if they already won the elections. Though, they can experience a failure similar to that witnessed in the September 5 constitutional referendum. The AEI’s failure in the elections in Moldova will represent a resounding failure of the EU in this region of Europe as it has repeatedly made public its political preferences. The reaction of the PCRM and the population to the unprecedented messages of the EU and the EU’s reaction to Moldova’s reaction to the EU’s messages will be examined in the second part of the analysis Last “EU Epistle” to Moldovans: triumphal call or voice crying in the wilderness?” Valeriu Vasilica, Info-Prim Neo