The economic activity of the population decreased in the first half of this year despite the economic growth. The economic activity rate, adjusted according to season, fell by 0.7% to 42.3%. Such contracting of the economic activity indicator has rather a statistical effect as it is distorted by the demographic and external migration effects, said experts of the independent think tank “Expert-Grup”.
The exclusion of these factors can result in a higher activity rate for the last few years. The rate would rise by about 10% to 53 – 54% and this level would be comparable to that in the region, say authors of the study “Analysis of economic growth in the Republic of Moldova in the fourth quarter of 2017”, IPN reports.
According to the experts, such an adjustment of the indicators is necessary in order to exactly determine the active population on the domestic labor market and the growth potential of the labor supply. The probability that the activity rate will grow in the immediate future is rather low owing to the rapid ageing of the population. The aging effect will intensify in the immediate future and will push down the aggregate activity rate.
The experts of “Expert Grup” consider that in the medium and long run the labor supply can be stimulated by active aging policies and by encouraging groups with low activity rates – young people and women – to take part in the labor market. The recent amendment made to the Labor Code to decrease the unpaid childcare leave by two years, from six to four, was a step forward in stimulating the women’s participation in the labor market. But these efforts produce effects only in the long run and will have a rather compensatory effect.
