Iulian Chifu, foreign policy adviser to the Romanian prime minister, thinks that the Kremlin rhetoric about an eventual assault by Ukraine on the Transnistrian region is part of Moscow’s information war, but both the authorities in Kiev and in Chisinau need to keep an eye out for any potential false flag provocations on the eastern bank of the Nistru River.
According to the Romanian official, the military risks to Moldova are currently low, but they cannot be completely ignored.
“The Russian Federation was removed from Kherson and pushed beyond the Dnieper. This shows that the direction of movement of this war is away from the Republic of Moldova. The fact that it has been a year since the outbreak of the war, and the Russian Federation has not found the instruments to sustain its initial levels of assault, shows us that its conventional capacity is also reduced. Sure, there are men, weapons, pressure along the entire length of the front, but with very little gains and large troop losses. This means that a massive change in this trend is unlikely”, Iulian Chifu said in an interview with Radio Moldova.
On Friday, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a press release to warn that “any action that poses a threat to the security of Russian citizens in Transnistria will be considered an attack against the Russian Federation”. This follows up on an earlier press release from the Russian Ministry of Defense claiming that Ukraine was plotting an assault on Transnistria. Iulian Chifu thinks this rhetoric is part of Russia’s information war.
"It is commendable that the Republic of Moldova has realized that passive neutrality is no longer a solution. The most famous neutral state, Switzerland, located in the middle of Europe, has the highest investment per capita in defense and security support. The information regarding a possible Ukrainian invasion of the Transnistrian region is part of the disinformation that Ukraine is preparing a certain type of attack. The fact that Ukraine is massing troops in the area of the Transnistrian region does not mean that it is preparing an attack, but that it is trying to protect its territory from the prospect of provocations from that region. All these elements are worrying and no responsible administration can ignore them. The fact that there, under a false flag, a provocation could be prepared is concerning. The Republic of Moldova will monitor very carefully, based on international exchange of information, what is happening there, so that it can react”, said Chifu.
The Moldovan Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Friday stated that “the messages launched in the last few days in the public space by the authorities of the Russian Federation about alleged provocations by the Ukrainian armed forces targeting the central (Transnistrian) section of the Moldova-Ukraine border do not correspond to the truth”.
