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Retrospective of a crisis. On the verge of collapse
The beginning of 2013 was marked by a deep political crisis that could have led to early parliamentary elections, while the current government would have experienced a crushing defeat in the polls. The politicians realized yet the risk and overcame the internal misunderstandings. As a result, at the end of November Moldova initialed the Association Agreement with the EU, with the European Commission recommending liberalizing the visa regime for Moldovans. The articles of the series “Retrospective of a crisis. On the verge of collapse” aim to anticipate how the events of 2013 will influence people’s options next year, which is an electoral one, and to formulate conclusions.
Investment of the Government
The Leanca Government was invested on May 31. The new Cabinet was the same old Cabinet, with only several ministers being changed. Deputy Minister Natalia Gherman was named Minister of Foreign Affairs and European Integration. Democratic MP Vasile Botnari was appointed as Minister of Transport, while ex-adviser to the Speaker Monica Babuc as Minister of Culture. Octavian Bodisteanu changed the post of deputy minister for Minister of Youth and Sport, while former Deputy Minister of Education Tatiana Potang was named as Deputy Prime Minister on Social Matters.
The European officials welcomed the investiture of the new Government. The EU’s Foreign Affairs Chief Catherine Ashton and Commissioner for Enlargement and Neighborhood Policy Stefan Fule in a joint statement welcomed the appointment of the Cabinet, saying it puts an end to a protracted political crisis that endangered the stability of Moldova’s state institutions. The officials invited the authorities and the citizens of Moldova to contribute to the constitutional reform which is needed to strengthen systemic checks and balances, and to prevent the emergence of similar crises in the future.
The Government continued to implement the European agenda so as to finish all the stages of the negotiations on the main European integration subjects, including the creation of a Free Trade Area between Moldova and the EU, by the Vilnius Summit and to fulfill the conditions for obtaining a liberalized visa regime. Prime Minister Iurie Leanca informed about this the EU ambassadors working in Moldova in the first meeting with them.
First 100 days
The three key objectives of the governmental team for the first 100 days were: creation of workplaces, fight against corruption, and acceleration of the European integration process. The Government organized, for the first time, several thematic meetings centering on the situation in education, constraints on economic entities and environment-related problems.
On June 11 and 12, there was held the last round of talks on the creation of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) with the EU. The establishment of the DCFTA will ensure Moldova’s economic integration into the EU and the gradual liberalization of the trade in goods and services, the free movement of labor force and reduction in customs duties, technical and non-tariff barriers. According to a study made by the European Union, the area will contribute to a 16% increase in Moldova’s exports to the EU member states and to a 5.6% rise in the country’s GDP.
On June 21, Parliament adopted a statement on the situation in the eastern districts of Moldova, following unilateral actions taken by Tiraspol in the Security Zone. The legislative body called on the sides involved in the Transnistrian conflict settlement process and the guarantor countries to sit at the negotiating table and to take decisions calmly. The Liberals headed by Mihai Ghimpu, Igor Dodon’s Socialists and unaffiliated MP Mihai Godea didn’t back the statement, saying it was sterile.
The construction of the Iasi-Ungheni gas pipeline was launched on August 27. It is planned that gas from Romania will come to Moldova through this pipeline from April 2014.
The Chisinau International Airport was conceded to a Russian company for a 49-year-period. The Government decided not to subscribe for the additional share issue of Banca de Economii, losing thus the majority holding in this bank.
In a news conference on September 19, the Premier reported that the Government fulfilled its main tasks for the first 100 days, but work is yet to be done for the people to have work at home, not to meet corrupt functionaries and judges and to feel in Moldova as in Europe. According to Iurie Leanca, in these 100 days, there were signed two financing agreements with the EIB and the EBRD, which will enable to rehabilitate 330 km of roads from next year. Grants were offered for the small and medium-sized companies to extend their businesses and to employ more people. There were provided over 1,600 grants and loans. In agriculture, there were offered subsidies to the value of 122 million lei. They attracted additional private investments of over 640 million lei. During the first 100 days, there were launched the e-apostille service for the people not to queue up at different offices.
The executive also pledged to attract new people to the police. About 1,300 jobs were filled at the Ministry of the Interior. Of them, 236 were occupied by women.
Victor Juc: Coalition is now stable
Victor Juc, vice director of the Institute for Juridical and Political Researches of the Academy of Sciences of Moldova, has told IPN that the crisis of the start of this year was caused intentionally, but when the protagonists realized that the situation went out of control, they looked for possibilities to return to normality. Ultimately, there were sustained losses as the Liberal Party became fragmented. However, the Leanca Government turned out to be beneficial from several viewpoints. Relative political stability appeared and things in Moldova returned to normality.
The political stability brought Moldova that break needed for completing the negotiations on the Association Agreement with the EU. The initialing of the Association Agreement is the greatest accomplishment of the Pro-European Coalition. The coalition is now stable and will not allow dissentions until the signing of the accord with the EU and even until the start of the election campaign. The censure motions submitted regularly by the Communists will not produce results, while the Government will not resign.
Victor Juc believes that the three parties of the coalition will come with pro-European messages at the next elections, but tactically will act in a different way. The Democratic Party will ‘flirt’ with Russia, the Liberal Democratic Party will insist on the support of the European People’s Party, while the Liberal Reforming Party will say that it saved the European course by giving the necessary votes. The Communist Party, of the opposition, will continue to harass the government by censure motions and by staging new revolutions.
“I see a relative and camouflaged political stability. The political protagonists will prepare for parliamentary elections. If the opposition wins, it will try to modify the strategic development course, while the current coalition will make effort for the Association Agreement to be signed, ratified and implemented. I don’t think that 2014 will differ significantly from 2013. They will pave the way and will accumulate forces for the struggle in the election campaign,” said Victor Juc.
Sensible ambitions
The appointment of Iurie Leanca as Prime Minister and of Igor Corman as Head of Parliament brought peace at the state institutions. Vlad Filat as Premier and Marian Lupu as Speaker were like volcanoes and pursued greater goals than they could achieve. Leanca and Corman are more balanced. They don’t want to become party leaders or opinion leaders. They introduced a work atmosphere that increased the efficiency of the institutions they head. The ambitions of these two politicians are not large enough to disrupt the work of the institutions.
As to the Government’s decisions not to subscribe for shares of the additional issue at Banca de Economii and to concede the Chisinau International Airport, Victor Juc said that in the election campaign they will remind about what was done and hat wasn’t done. Especially the parliamentary and extra parliamentary opposition will make use of these decisions. “I don’t think that the ruling parties will lose much as a result of these decisions as they are accomplished facts. If the bank works normally, the discussions about the sale of shares will not seriously affect the Government’s image. If modernization acts start at the airport in 2014, the Government will be able to use this thing in its favor,” said the expert.
Lessons to be learned
2013 was a very important year for Moldova as the Association Agreement with the EU was initialed. It was expected that the accord will be even signed, but the crisis thwarted the plans. The lesson that society and the Government must learn is that Moldova is a small country, but it needs political stability and dialogue for being governed in coalition. The political elites must bear responsibility for their messages, while the governments will be punished in the elections if they do not achieve noticeable results.
The geopolitical vector in Moldova remains decisive for parties’ options, but in the competition between the ‘European integration’ and the ‘Eurasian integration’, the European one holds the lead as it represents a development model, said Victor Juc. Moldova needs a new and pragmatic political elite that will focus on the national interests, not on the group ones. The MPs should include professionals, jurists, politologists, sociologists and economists, who would adopt laws in accordance with the European standards.
Mariana Galben, IPN