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Retrospective of a crisis. On the verge of collapse
The beginning of 2013 was marked by a deep political crisis that could have led to early parliamentary elections, while the current government would have experienced a crushing defeat in the polls. The politicians realized yet the risk and overcame the internal misunderstandings. As a result, at the end of November Moldova initialed the Association Agreement with the EU, with the European Commission recommending liberalizing the visa regime for Moldovans. The articles of the series “Retrospective of a crisis. On the verge of collapse” aim to anticipate how the events of 2013 will influence people’s options next year, which is an electoral one, and to formulate conclusions.
Beginning of negotiations
The negotiations on Moldova’s association with the EU started in 2010. There were held 15 rounds of talks on the Association Agreement and another six rounds of talks on the creation of a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area. The last round was held in June 2013.
The talks focused on the gradual liberalization (within 10 years of the signing of the agreement) of the trade in goods and services, free movement of labor force, diminution of customs duties, technical and nontariff barriers, abolition of quantitative restrictions and adjustment of Moldova’s legislation to the EU acquis.
According to a study made by the European Union, the creation of the Free Trade Area between Moldova and the EU will contribute to a 16% increase in Moldova’s exports and to a 5.6% rise in the country’s GDP.
In the preamble of the Association Agreement, Moldova is recognized as a European country whose history and values are similar to that of the EU member states. The European Union welcomes the country’s choice, including the commitment to develop sustainable democracy and a market economy.
Initialing of the agreement
On November 29, this year Moldova and Georgia initialed the Association Agreement with the EU at the Vilnius Eastern Partnership Summit. Ukraine was to sign the agreement with the EU at the summit, but one week before the event, the Ukrainian politicians refused to adopt a number of laws complying with the EU legislation and suspended the procedures for the association with the EU, arguing that this will irrecoverably affect the country’s economy.
The European Union intends to sign the association agreements initialed with Moldova and Georgia at the Vilnius EaP Summit as soon as possible, said the President of the European Council Herman Van Rompuy. According to the European official, the EU institutions respect the countries’ choice to come closer to the EU and put no pressure.
President of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso said the initialing of the association agreements with the EU by Moldova and Georgia represents not just opening of the European market to these states. It offers access to the largest market of the world and this will enable to create workplaces.
Immediately after the initialing of the Association Agreement with the EU, Prime Minister Iurie Leanca said that Moldova witnessed a historical moment as there was initialed an ambitious and large-scale agreement without precedent. It symbolizes confidence, openness and cooperation between Moldova and the EU. “Moldova, today we secured our road to the European Union,” Iurie Leanca stated before the heads of state and government of the EU and Eastern Partnership member states.
The Premier added that Moldova’s entry into the EU is a great dream that started to take shape after the initialing of the Association Agreement. He said he would like to say that the Moldovans’ life will improve from the next day, but they cannot work miracles and have yet a lot to do to implement the provisions of the Association Agreement.
Assumed commitments
The Association Agreement between Moldova and the European Union contains more European directives and regulations than the accord initialed with Georgia, the agreement initialed, but not signed with Ukraine and even the stabilization and association agreements of the EU with the Balkan countries, which received the promise that they will become integrated into the European area, said European expert Hrant Kostanyan, a teacher at the Ghent University of Brussels. “We made a comparative study of the three accords agreed by the EU with Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova and established that Moldova’s agreement contains more European and regulations than the other two agreements. Thus, the supposition that Moldova is the best student in the class because it made the largest number of commitments was confirmed,” said the expert.
The Association Agreement between Moldova and the EU contains 395 directives and regulations. If all of them are implemented, Moldova will have the Community acquis integrated into the national legislation.
The discussions on the Association Agenda between the European Union and Moldova started on December 19, 2013. This agenda is the instrument that will prepare and ensure the implementation of the Association Agreement, including the creation of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area. The sides exchanged opinions on the draft Association Agenda, set the schedule of consultations and agreed to finalize it by next spring.
Expectations for 2014
The Association Agreement between Moldova and the EU is to be signed next September.
It should be noted that after Russia imposed a new ban on the imports of Moldovan wine, the EU decided to support Moldova and adopted the proposal to fully liberalize the European market for the Moldovan wine. From January 1, 2014, Moldova will be able to export wine to the EU in unlimited quantities.
It is also planned that next year Moldova will obtain a liberalized visa regime with the EU, for Moldovan travelers holding a biometric passport. Moldova and the European Union are also negotiating a mobility agreement that would allow the Moldovans to work in the EU member states.
Lina Grau: Association Agreement with EU represents separation from Soviet past
Foreign policy expert Lina Grau commented for IPN that the initialing of the Association Agreement with the EU was definitely a historical event. It represented the separation from the Soviet past, which was anchored in the sphere of influence of Russia. Furthermore, even if formally the document does not provide a clear accession prospect, de facto the content of the accord between Moldova and the EU is more advanced than those initialed with Ukraine and even Georgia. This means that Moldova made maximal effort to align itself with the European norms and standards. When these norms start to be applied, Moldova will be able to ask for European integration prospects.
Currently, it can be said that the ball is in the field of the Moldovan authorities. The EU is maximally open to Moldova and it depends on Chisinau whether the offered opportunities are taken or not.
The initialing of the Association Agreement made the authorities and ruling parties to mobilize. The personal rivalries between the party leaders were left aside for a period. This showed that when they really want, the political class can act maturely and responsibly. Even if the people are still disappointed with the way the government coalition managed things, the initialing of the Association Agreement seems to have been brought hope that Moldova won’t be put at the mercy of local ‘oligarchs’ and that the European institutions will attentively supervise the situation.
Risks expected next year
In 2014, the European institutions will monitor Moldova so as to see how it fulfils the plan agreed with the EU. According to Lina Grau, given that it is an electoral year, there are several risks. The first risk is the government’s inconsistency in implementing reforms, including the difficulties that may be encountered in the reformation of the justice sector. As 2014 is an electoral year, the authorities may agree not to reveal important cases of corruption and the lack of results will be definitely punished by the European partners.
Another major risk is the growing pressure on the part of Russia, which will surely not give up hope to prevent Moldova from signing the Association Agreement, as in the case of Ukraine. “I refer to the main instruments by which Russia will exert pressure, including the persecution of the Moldovan migrants, economic pressure, rise in the price of gas and the Transnistrian and Gagauz separatism. Moreover, the Communist opposition will certainly make effort to cause instability and situations of conflict,” said Lina Grau.
As electoral contribution, the Association Agreement may generate benefits for the ruling parties only if the ordinary people feel an improvement in the quality of life. The authorities must explain to the people the long and medium-term advantages of the accord, even if it does not bring direct benefits to the ordinary people at present. The abolition of the visa requirements next autumn will surely generate a wave of popular sympathy for the government. It is very important to finish also other European projects, like the repair of roads and water pipes, so that the people see what European integration means.
Necessary cohesion
Unfortunately, there is no cohesion around the European integration idea in the Moldovan political class. Undoubtedly, the opposition in the election campaign will lay emphasis on the integration into the Eurasian Union, said Lina Grau. The ruling parties must understand that the European integration is not a desideratum of only the elites and that, without the people’s support for this idea, Europe may remain just a nice dream. That’s why the pro-European, center-right parties must show cohesion, win the elections and learn to efficiently govern in a coalition.
The authorities next year must put their suits in the wardrobe and put on rubber boots and must do what they didn’t do since 2009 – explain what European integration is to the people and why they deserve receiving one more term in office.
Society must be aware and understand that Moldova can have a better future only in the EU and our votes next year will be decisive for the country’s future. At the end of its term, the current government, despite its many faults, will have an association agreement and a liberalized visa regime with the EU.
Mariana Galben, IPN