Moldovan society is characterized by fragmentation at mentality level. This is explained by the controversial past of the territory located between the Prut and Nistru, which witnessed two types of societal modernization – Romanian of European type and Soviet. This is conspicuously seen in the structure of the Moldovan voters: pro-Russian, pro-Moldovan, pro-European and pro-Romanian. The political parties use and play on these types of voters, consciously accepting one type of voters and rejecting the others, stated political commentator Ion Tabarta.
Contacted by IPN, Ion Tabarta said that the main criteria for dividing the parties up into the left and the right in Moldova is the geopolitical one. “The geopolitical criterion was like a red line for the Moldovan political parties, which was seldom crossed. The parties that crossed this red line later paid dearly. It’s hard for me to believe that things will now change essentially. The voters of the left will vote pro-Russian politicians, while those of the right will vote pro-European candidates,” he stated.
Asked how informed the voters are and what capacities they have to take a correct decision based on the varied electoral information, the analyst said that regretfully, the candidates and political parties, with small exceptions, misinform rather than inform. This is done intentionally, in order to mislead the voters. The parties and candidates who possess media resources are advantaged. The voters find it difficult to discern based on this amalgam of manipulating information. The voter’s place of origin counts a lot. For example, the voters from Chisinau, where there is more information, can easier cope with manipulation compared with those from the rural areas of Moldova.
As to the vulnerability of voters to corrupt electoral practices, Ion Tabarta said the political parties continue to bribe one way or another, but, compared with the 1990s, these practices diversified indeed. “They use more sophisticated techniques to influence the voters rather than the giving of rice and pasta directly to the voter. Today we have different charity or other kinds of organizations whose goal is to predispose the voter to support a particular party or political leader by their activities,” he stated.
Analyzing the traits of the voters depending on geographical areas, the political commentator said the voters in the center of the Republic of Moldova are predominantly pro-European and pro-Romanian. Those from the north and south of the country are more pro-Russian. “As to the diaspora, it’s well known that those who work in the Russian Federation vote for pro-Russian parties, while those from European countries vote for pro-European parties. As regards the diaspora, I think the discussions should focus on the facilitation of the participation of the Moldovans who are abroad in elections,” stated Ion Tabarta.
Speaking about the voting tendencies, the political commentator said he does not believe that we will see radical changes in the electoral picture compared with the parliamentary elections of November 2014 and the local elections of June 2015. Unlike these two types of elections, the equation of the October 30 presidential elections is simpler. The political situation of the elections of June 2015 in Chisinau municipality could repeat. Then, there were two favorite candidates divided based on political criteria from the very beginning. The equation of the political competition of October 30 will also include a pro-Russian candidate (Dodon) and a pro-European candidate (Sandu/Nastase). Furthermore, we will have the government’s candidate (Lupu). The other candidates either have slim chances or are political spoilers.
“It is hard to say what kind of President we will have depending on the voters’ profile. However, given that the voters of the left prevail in the Republic of Moldova, the President could also represent this political segment. Apparently, the Socialist leader is a favorite, but his voter base is limited to the pro-Russian electors. I already mentioned that we now have three major electoral subjects: the pro-Russian left, the government and the pro-European opposition. A lot will depend on who goes through to the second round and how the voters of the priggish electoral subject behave in the first round,” concluded Ion Tabarta.
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The article forms part of the IPN series “Profile of the voter: who votes the President”.
