Inflation policy in 2009 must heed world recession: IDIS Viitorul think tank

The inflation policy in 2009 must take into account the world recession, what will cause the prices of raw materials to fall, says Sergiu Gaibu, an expert with IDIS Viitorul think tank in a research published in the 15th edition of Monitorul Economic. He said at a round table on Tuesday that the prices of energy and oil were falling, while the food market had stabilized and the pressure on national products had slumped, Info-Prim Neo reports. “The most important factor to influence the the national prices will consist in the domestic pressure. The real sector of the Moldovan economy is too uncompetitive what will cause the demand to rise. It will make the prices of food to soar,” the expert said. Sergiu Gaibu opines the drop in foreign payments could diminish the inflation-related pressure, but for a longer term. In his opinion, the remittances in 2009 will fall 10-12%, even 20% in the most pessimistic case. A sharper fall may also touch on the currency exchange rate, and the people's living standard, since the consumption will go down, and thus, the incomes to the budget. The expert assesses the monetary mass in Moldova will stagnate in 2009. As for the exchange rate, IDIS Viitorul forecast the foreign currencies will appreciate related to the leu by 10%.