Increase of prices on petroleum market could affect Moldova. IPN Analysis

Political tensions on world level – war in the Middle East and the crisis generated by Iran’s “nuclear program”, as well as some technical problems – closing the biggest petroleum filed of USA by British Petroleum – creates significant pressures over the international market of petroleum and accelerates price increase tendencies. This situation could lead to a new price boom of petroleum products, including in Moldova which is totally dependent on external evolutions. This week, international markets increased by one dollar the Brent oil, reaching the level of 77.10 USD/barrel, and the Light made petroleum was appreciated at 75.8 USD/barrel on Asian markets, increasing by USD 1.04. This situation is due to the negative news from Middle East and the decision of British Petroleum to close the most important petroleum field of USA, because of technical problems (Prudhoe Bay field of North Slope, Alaska). In this way company’s production turnover will reduce by 400 thousand barrels per day. On this background, the financial evaluation agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) predicted three situations regarding the quotation of petroleum. Optimistic scenario: in case of a short conflict in the Middle East the price for petroleum will drop below USD 70 per barrel until the end of this year and below USD 60 by the end of 2008. Pessimistic scenario: in case Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, through which petroleum is transited from Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates. The world petroleum deliveries would significantly reduce and the recession of world economy would be unavoidable. An intermediary evolution could determine halt of petroleum supplies from Iran, which would deprive the world market of 2.7 million barrels. In this case the price for petroleum will temporary exceed 100 USD/ barrel and will stabilize around USD 95 and will start to decrease by the end of 2007 when exports from Iran would be resumed. The unreal scenario: S&P presents another possibility, if Iran, other Muslim countries and possibly Venezuela embargoes the US petroleum. In this case, the price for petroleum would rise to over 90 USD/barrel for a short period. S&P experts consider this scenario the most improbable, because the majority of countries would hesitate to apply embargo, which will lead to a fast normalization of prices. Regardless of the evolutions on the world market, Moldova, which integrally imports petroleum products, will be undoubtedly affected. The latest increase in price of petroleum products on the internal market occurred on July 19, 2006. Gas stations increased the price at that time by almost 7% for gasoline and by 3% for diesel oil. This was the third increase in price of petroleum products this year. The price for A95 gasoline increased by 7.5% and namely from MDL 11.95 to MDL 12.85 per liter. A92 gasoline costs now MDL 12.40 per liter, compared with MDL 11.60 previously, and A90 gasoline costs MDL 12.10 per liter (compared with MDL 11.30). At the same time, the diesel oil has increased in price from MDL 10.40 to MDL 10.70 per liter. The oil-industry workers justified the increase in price by the situation on the world market. In 2005, Moldova imported 526.5 thousand tones of gasoline and diesel oil.