In 2013 Ukraine could play a more visible role in Transnistrian settlement, study

Ukraine could be a key actor in conflict settlement in Transnistria, but it is not, observe Nicu Popescu and Leonid Litra in a study titled “Transnistria: A Bottom-Up Solution”. The experts note that in 2013 Ukraine will hold the OSCE chairmanship in 2013, which will give it another platform to play a more visible role on Transnistria. According to the experts, Ukraine is in favor of Moldova’s territorial integrity and greater EU involvement in the region. It also supports the transformation of the Russian-led peacekeeping operation into an international mission, which corresponds to the positions of Moldova and the EU. Ukrainian diplomats think that confidence-building measures should remain the main tool for rapprochement between Chisinau and Tiraspol. Alongside confidence-building measures, the process should be focused on economic cooperation. At the same time, the study's authors note, Ukraine has its own domestic problems, such as economic troubles, tensions in its relations with Russia, and a lack of credibility with the EU. This internal situation means that Ukraine is not in a position to be a forceful player on Transnistria. The expets suggest that Ukraine is unlikely to push for a settlement as long as it appears that the only potential solutions would involve some sort of federalism. Ukraine has in the past had its own problems with regions such as Crimea demanding more autonomy from the center. Kyiv therefore worries that a federative arrangement could set a precedent for Russia to engage in attempts to federalize Ukraine. In conclusion, Nicu Popescu and Leonid Litra note that Ukraine Ukraine often plays a positive role in the process, but it has not managed to be particularly active on conflict settlement in a way that would be appreciated by Moldova, Transnistria, or the EU. Ukraine’s approach to Transnistria is influenced by countervailing factors that leave Ukraine almost helplessly squeezed in the middle. The study “Transnistria: A Bottom-Up Solution” was published by IDIS Viitorul and the European Council on Foreign Relations, with the financial support of the Soros Foundation Moldova.