“In the aforementioned extremely difficult circumstances, Igor Dodon’s approach to be allowed to go on pilgrimage to Mount Athos can be understood. To succeed in this approach, Igor Dodon, as a good Christian, should renounce at least the pagan practices, such as oomancy (foretelling with eggs) and public sharing of his premonitions...”
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Black swan that predicts interesting times
At the very beginning of this year, Igor Dodon predicted the imminent arrival of the black swan, followed by unpredictable effects - interesting times - for the international and local political arena. The mysterious announcement of the Socialist leader was confirmed at a distance of only two months. One of the black swans didn’t hesitate to appear, on March 17, 2023, when the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued a war crimes arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
It is noteworthy that the ICC’s area of competence in fact covers the most serious crimes, such as: 1) genocide; 2) crimes against humanity; 3) war crimes; 4) aggression. The given offenses do not have statute of limitations. It should also be noted that the ICC rules with regard to private individuals, not to states. Respectively, the court can investigate and prosecute persons for the four mentioned crimes only in situations in which the states are incapable of or intentionally oppose doing this. So, the ICC’s competence is complementary to the competence of the domestic courts and addresses the mentioned crimes only if these are committed on the territory of a state party or if they are committed by a citizen of a state party to the ICC’s Rome Statute.
In the aforementioned circumstances, the Russian officials reacted predictably, noting that they do not have any obligation towards the Rome Statute of the ICC as Russia does not cooperate with this institution. Therefore, the decisions adopted by this are null and void from legal viewpoint for Russia. However, the states that signed and ratified the Rome Statute of the ICC – 123 in number among which is the Republic of Moldova - can in particular circumstances arrest Vladimir Putin for bringing him before the ICC. Respectively, it is hard to anticipate how the relations of Putin’s Russia with the 123 states, which are party to the Rome Statute, will develop in the future. It is yet sure that Vladimir Putin has the official status of alleged international criminal and any contacts with this imply at least serious reputational risks.
Inverse effects of Igor Dodon’s premonitions
So, Igor Dodon’s premonition does not envision anything gladdening for him and the pro-Russian parties in the Republic of Moldova. It should also be noted that the leader of the Moldovan Socialists is an inveterate supporter of the alleged international criminal Vladimir Putin. While holding office of President of the Republic of Moldova, Dodon told the Russian people that he envies them having Putin as President: “I envy with positive envy the citizens of Russia having such a leader. I think your President did a lot to strengthen patriotism and statehood and this is the most important thing. Without this, the country does not have a future. This is what we lack today”.
Regrettably or, possibly, fortunately for Igor Dodon, he lacks not only Putinist patriotism and statehood, but also a status similar to the one that was recently imposed on Putin as, immediately after the annexation of Crimea, on March 18, 2014, in the program White&Black, Dodon frankly said that: “In the newly created conjuncture (annexation of Crimea), I think we (Republic of Moldova) should also recover the lost historical territories […] I think it is very clear what I mean. These are our territories. If someone didn’t understand what I mean, they should come to the party and we will teach them courses so that they understand”. This is a courageous statement inciting the stealing of territories, which is war.
This way, we convince ourselves that the avalanche of interesting times started back in 2014 and the Republic of Moldova’s involvement in that twirl was requested by Igor Dodon, who wanted to become the beneficiary of the wanted interesting times. Anyway, there is no doubt that the Socialist leader has the gift of premonition, but his promotions have a catastrophic defect, at least for now. The point is the results of the predictions are contrary to the expectations. This was proven by the premonition that he would win the presidential elections of 2020, based on foretelling with eggs in Etulia. That’s why the recent premonition, of this January, about the black swan, is only additional confirmation that Igor Dodon is a very unlucky man. Therefore, the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) should distance more itself from the bad luck bearer somehow.
An anticipated STEP (PAS)...
There is no doubt that in the regional context shaped by the Russian aggression against Ukraine, the political struggle in the Republic of Moldova acquires very specific nuances. The ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) promised good times to us, but we actually live interesting times. Respectively, we should admit that the PAS leaders do not have the intuition of the PSRM leaders. However, by accident, the PAS leaders do not manage sometimes to take correct decisions even if public opinion considers differently. For example, most of the citizens of the Republic of Moldova, over 70%, believe that the PAS government or even President Maia Sandu should negotiate with Putin a better price for the gas supplied to our country. At the moment, in light of the recent ICC decision to declare Vladimir Putin an alleged international criminal, we convince ourselves that the Moldovan authorities’ refusal to negotiate with Putin seems to be a moral virtue that opens up new perspectives for the Republic of Moldova.
It is also curios that the PAS government that firmly spoke out against the Russian aggression in Ukraine, but avoided to clearly assess Russia’s actions, gradually decided to do this right before the ICC’s decision to impose the status of alleged international criminal on Putin. Initially, on March 2, 2023, the Parliament of the Republic of Moldova adopted a Statement on Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Two weeks later, on March 17, the day the ICC announced its decision, President Maia Sandu went to Parliament to transmit a clear message to the citizens, entitled: In 2030, the Republic of Moldova should be a member state of the European Union. Besides reiterating the theses from the Parliament’s Statement, the official underlined the European integration perspectives and the risks that these can be undermined by Russia: “The Shor grouping received clear instructions from the Kremlin and the FSB – to bring the war to Moldova. Their goal is to destabilize and oust by violence the democratically elected government”.
We should understand that the Moldovan authorities knew to anticipate the ICC decision that represents a kind of watershed from which there is no way back to the pro-Russian policy. For the purpose, the pro-European political forces need to be kept in power in the immediate and more distant future. This is a difficult task amidst the uninterrupted attempts to destabilize the Republic of Moldova. This way we convince ourselves that the stake of the internal political struggle is huge.
Shor and Putin, common fate...
In her recent message to the citizens, President Maia Sandu said that the Shor Party is the spearhead of the Russian policies in the Republic of Moldova, a role that was earlier played by the PSRM and was to be fulfilled through the Russian imperial movement with financial support from the Kremlin. In such circumstances, the Shor Party and the PSRM should act in concert to destabilize the political situation, as the informal leader of the PSRM, Igor Dodon, recently insisted. The problem is the current leaders of the party do not listen to Igor Dodon, who can no longer discredit himself, while the new leaders of the PSRM do not want to discredit themselves alongside the Shor Party. Respectively, the Kremlin decided to bank on the Shor Party that turned out to be a big trump card – unmistakable distinguishable face.
An implicit proof of the fact that the Russian circles bank on the Shor Party is the fact that the latter decided to simply cannibalize the PSRM, causing massive switching among the Socialist heavyweights. In the Republic of Moldova, party switching is most of the times based on the financial factor. Or, it is impossible to imagine the reason of the switching of MP Alexandr Nesterovschi or of a number of mayors of the PSRM. Probably, not only the money motivated the Socialist turncoats to join the Shor Party, but also the future common fate of Ilan Shor and Vladimir Putin, who are both accused of committing particular crimes. It is known that nothing brings someone closer than the common future! It’s true that Ilan Shor has a more advanced status than Vladimir Putin as he was already convicted by the ordinary court and is wanted in the Republic of Moldova for being definitively convicted for the US$1 billion theft from the banking system. On the other hand, Vladimir Putin is wanted by the ICC for alleged crimes committed in Ukraine.
Communist-Socialists abandon Russia in favor of China
The Communist-Socialist opposition that refuses to condemn the Russian aggressions against Ukraine, but feels uncomfortable to publicly support Russia’s actions in Ukraine or to cooperate with the Shor Party for destabilizing the Republic of Moldova has to pose as a supporter of the policies pursued by the influential Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The latter recently organized an International Forum of political parties centering on the Global Civilization Initiative. But problems exist here too. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) and its leaders constantly declare that they are supporters of the globalization processes: “Economic globalization is a requirement of social development and a necessary result of scientific and technological progress. The pursuing of de-globalization amidst the COVID-19 pandemic is not to the interest of any country”.
The problem is the PSRM is a confirmed anti-globalist party that condemns globalization, supporting the so-called glocalization that is promoted by Russia: “World is no longer unipolar and the principles of globalization should therefore remain in the past. The time of a multipolar world came instead the unipolar world. Globalization started to concede to the principle of glocalization that manifests itself through the intensification of local particularities of the people of countries and of social systems. Simply speaking, this means the time that unique rules and standards worked out in a country were to be adopted all over the world has passed. So, as a matter of principle, the PSRM cannot become a reliable partner for the CCP.
It should be noted that representatives of the Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova (PCRM) took part online in the forum organized by the CCP. But the PCRM can also not become a partner for the CCP for the simple reason that the first degenerated so much that it cannot make a distinction between neoimperialism and neoimpressionism. So, most probably, the CCP, if it pursues any goal, should eventually find other allies among the political parties of the Republic of Moldova.
Conclusions
The international political conjuncture makes the Republic of Moldova to choose between the promotion of unambiguous foreign policy referring to: a) European integration; b) explicit condemnation of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine; and c) subscribing to international institutions’ decisions concerning the consequences of Russia’s aggression.
Despite the difficulties faced in in the internal policy, the ruling party PAS seems for now to be the only political party in the country with a clear view on the Republic of Moldova’s future, having also solid international support for achieving its goals. Anyway, in order to guarantee a pro-European future to the country, the PAS should be preoccupied with the strengthening of a broad pro-European front by inviting other pro-European parties to join in.
The pro-Russian or Eurasian opposition parliamentary parties remain dispersed. For now, there are no signs that this state of affairs will change. The components of the Bloc of Communists and Socialists hate each other in an irreconcilable way. In fact, both the Socialists and the Communists do not have any clear views about the Republic of Moldova’s future in the new international political conjuncture.
The premonitions of the informal leader of the PSRM, Igor Dodon, about the black swans come true, but are not in favor of the party, at least for now. The PSRM now: a) lost the political and financial support of the Kremlin in favor of the Shor Party; b) shares glocalization in contrast to globalization that is supported by the Scholiast International, in particular the CCP, and cannot become a credible partner; c) is subject to cannibalization through party switching caused by the Russia-supported Shor Party, etc.
In the aforementioned extremely difficult circumstances, Igor Dodon’s approach to be allowed to go on pilgrimage to Mount Athos can be understood. To succeed in this approach, Igor Dodon, as a good Christian, should renounce at least the pagan practices, such as oomancy (foretelling with eggs) and public sharing of his premonitions.
