The Republic of Moldova can become involved in the Russian-Ukrainian war only if it is directly attacked and needs to fight back. With regard to the Transnistrian region, things stand differently. On the one hand, the elites there pursue their own business, enrichment interests and do not want the situation to be destabilized. On the other hand, this region is controlled by the Russian Federation, including militarily and financially. He who pays the piper calls the tune, Igor Boțan, the project’s standing expert, stated in a public debate hosted by IPN News Agency.
The expert said that the ex-president of the supreme soviet of the so-called “rmn”, Burla, about seven years ago asserted that the Transnistrian region is annually supported by the Russian Federation with US$1.100 billion a year. “So, if Russia spends such sums to maintain this regime afloat and we saw that Russia tried to persuade Belarus to also become involved and even uses the territory of Belarus for military purposes, we can presume that those who actually control Transnistria pursue goals in this enclave that does not have a status at international level,” stated Igor Boțan, noting that Transnistria represents a weakness for Ukraine’s security and Ukraine is not interested in opening the second front in Transnistria.
According to Igor Boțan, the destabilization of the situation in the Transnistrian region is convenient for Russia. “I suspect the Transnistrian elites realize that they have a very modest potential and they don’t know who will win this war. They think about their future and their survival. They do not want the situation to be destabilized. But I guess that those “who pay the piper” do not share this viewpoint. They want the situation to be destabilized there,” said the expert, presuming that the recent provocations were aimed at making Tiraspol to speak about eventual mobilization and take other steps so as to attract Kyiv’s attention and make this mobilize forces for an eventual escalation on the part of Transnistria.
Furthermore, he noted the reports by the General Staff of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine show that the attack on Odessa was to be staged from three directions, from the sea, after eventually occupying Nikolayev, and from Transnistria. As the Russians got stuck in Kherson and lost “Moskva” cruiser, the pressure on Odessa decreased, but the danger didn’t disappear.
Igor Boțan said the Moldovan authorities’ explanations for the recent incidents that occurred in Transnistria - an internal conflict in the region - are valid. There is an authoritarian regime in Transnistria. Sheriff gained control over the Party “Obnovlenie” (“Renewal”), which holds power in Transnistria. The former ruling elites fell into the disgrace of the former elites - Kuzimichov is in jail and wants Moldova to go to the ECHR- and there are sufficient reasons for a struggle between the former and current elites and those that lost in the current circumstances are interested in destabilizing this regime that is controlled from outside and is an authoritarian one. All the versions have undertones.
Igor Boțan admitted that if Russia occupies Odessa and reaches the border with the Transnistrian region, it can enter further the Republic of Moldova. “We remember the referendum held in Gagauzia on February 2, 2014. I plead for calmness and reasonableness, but we must realize that there are many weaknesses in the Republic of Moldova and these weaknesses were maintained for us by propaganda and ideology. The Russian World concept is promoted also through the agency of the Patriarch of Moscow, who accepts this war.”
The public debate titled “Real situation and useful reaction of Moldovan society to provocations around Transnistrian region” was the 241th installment of IPN’s project “Developing Political Culture through Public Debates” that is supported by the Hanns Seidel Foundation.