IDIS predicts cumulative inflation of over 14% towards this yearend

The inflation rate in May reached 17.09%. Though the prices stopped rising, the Institute for Development and Social Initiative (IDIS) “Viitorul” anticipates a cumulative inflation of 14.2% towards this yearend, Info-Prim Neo reports. The high inflation is mainly due to the rise in the prices of energy and food products and in the transport and communication rates. According to economic analyst Veaceslav Ionita, the yearly inflation level could be nearly 30%, but the significant appreciation of the national currency prevented this. Now the economists speak about the inflation of the poor, which is twofold higher than the general inflation. Experts of IDIS say that in 2008, it will hit 40%, as against 22.9% in 2007. The structure of the poor people’s consumption corresponds to the inflation of the minimum subsistence level. IDIS recommends the National Bureau of Statistics to monthly monitor the situation in order to avoid serious crises. According to Veaceslav Ionita, the state budget will lose at least 1.5 billion lei as a result of the policies aimed at curbing the inflation, implemented by the National Bank of Moldova. These will negatively influence the competitiveness of the national economy and will reduce the export capacity. Representatives of the National Bank say yet that the rate of inflation for this year will not exceed 10%. They dispute the assessments regarding the inflation of the poor made by IDIS “Viitorul”, saying that such studies must be carried out by areas as the products that enter the minimum consumer basket are diverse.