IPN analysis: Despite the special importance of 2013, from political and geopolitical viewpoints, for Moldova, this importance is less significant than that of 2014. In this respect, 2013 was like an antechamber of 2014 and only the investments made in 2013, which can contribute to achieving the goals of this electoral year, count. Wining the November 2014 parliamentary elections is the major and general goal pursued by all the political forces in Moldova. The other real or illusory, sincere or artificial objectives, set by the Moldovan political players for 2014, depend on this key goal.
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Investments and anti-investments of the government
The initialing of the Association Agreement with the EU, which envisions the creation of a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area, and the obtaining of the promise to abolish soon the visa requirements for Moldovans from the EU are the main investments made by the parties of the Pro-European Coalition last year for the electoral struggle of this yearend. The positive effects of these accomplishments will serve as major arguments with which they will come before the voters, asking for a new term.
An example of positive effect, resulting from the institutionalized coming closer of Moldova to the EU, is the full opening of the EU market for the Moldovan wines practically immediately after Russia imposed a ban and long before the coming into force of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement. It’s true that the positive effect is rather symbolical because time must yet pass until the Moldovan wines massively penetrate the European market. Additional measures should be taken for the purpose. It is however important the method of solving the economic, political and geopolitical problems, which became possible owing to this coming closer to the EU.
Another investment, related to the first, was the completion of multiple social infrastructure projects in different settlements of the country, including to build new kindergartens and schools, medical centers and water pipes, segments of local and national roads. The given settlements and regions didn’t have such facilities for years and even decades. This kind of investments will continue this year, as the authorities promised, so that every village and every person benefits from these projects that are mainly implemented with European funds or money from other development partners of the country. The given investments will be the most credible arguments in the 2014 struggle for seats in Parliament.
A sub-investment, also in the European integration process, was the renewal of the government in a period of profound political crisis, when this change seemed impossible. More exactly, there was changed the method of communication between the components of the government and respectively, of governing the country in a coalition, in a more or less civilized way. It happened at a time when the population was sick and tired of quarrels, settling of an old score and reciprocal accusations inside the ruling alliance.
The ‘wild’ interaction of the three political parties represented an anti-investment that seriously affected their image and credibility before the voters. This anti-investment may weigh as an investment or even more, if the three parties do not make sure to strengthen and multiply the given ‘sub-investment’.
As to the European context of this ‘sub-investment”, at the final stage of the political crisis from the first half of last year, the components of the Alliance for European Integration burned all the bridges that could help restore the possibility of governing in concert. In certain cases, these bridges were burned repeatedly, with the repeated involvement of their common enemy – the Communist Party (PCRM). One bridge was yet left undestroyed. It ensured the regeneration of the Alliance for European Integration in the form of the Pro-European Coalition. This bridge was named the ‘European integration process’ represented by the Vilnius Summit, where the Association Agreement with the EU was initialed on November 29, 2013. The reasons for which this bridge wasn’t burned now are not so important. It is the effect that counts – the early elections were avoided and an important stage to Europeanize the country was covered.
Investments and anti-investments of the opposition
The main opposition force, the PCRM, invested in what it considered more useful from the prospect of its political goals, aimed at causing early elections by discrediting the Government before the voters. Furthermore, the Government itself gave sufficient reasons for this. Over the last year, the PCRM invested a lot in the institutionalization of its political current either in the form of a “Civic Congress” or of a “Velvet Revolution”, all seasoned with permanent and pressing protests that involved a large number of people. The PCRM also invested a lot and excessively in a message that was rather destructive than constructive and this message hasn’t produced the expected result, but it can. The result may be produced not by the own actions of the PCRM, but rather by the mistaken actions or inaction of the authorities. That’s why the given investment of the party can be described simultaneously as an anti-investment.
Owing to this behavior, some of the politicians and analysts described the PCRM as ‘anti-system’ party. The give description started to be used by a part of the local activists, who announced that they leave the PCRM and its factions in the local administration bodies in different settlements and of a different level.
The investments and anti-investments of the PCRM were also determined by Moldova’s foreign development course. The PCRM needs early elections not only because it wants to return to power, but rather because it wants to achieve its declared goal of Moldova joining the Eurasian area, by thwarting the European course.
The investments and anti-investments of the non-parliamentary opposition are mainly those made by the People’s Movement “Antimafie”, the People’s Party and the Unionist Party.
The Movement “Antimafie” occupied a niche that is equally productive for itself and useful to society – of a sanitary wolf that wants to swallow the representatives and manifestations of the power that infect Moldovan society with corruption, injustice and other unfavorable phenomena. The process of cleaning the current power started after the disclosures made by the Movement at the beginning of last year, concerning the fatal incident during hunting in the natural reserve “Padurea Domneasca”, which involved high-ranking officials. The anti-investment of “Antimafiei” is the fact that it destroys the communication bridges with possible partners that have more chances to enter the future Parliament, if it also enters it. The investments and anti-investments of the National Liberal Party, which is the nucleus of the unionist movement in Moldova, and of the People’s Party, which is as active, but more tolerant and cooperative in the communication with the current components of the government, can be assessed by the same scheme.
Geopolitical stakes and vote
The parliamentary elections of this yearend will have mainly geopolitical stakes. The electors’ vote will be now more geopolitical than ever. The European integration of Moldova will have the Eurasian integration as counter-option. The elections will be won by the forces that will be more convincing in the communication with the voters. This is how things stand even if the first geopolitical project is real and functional and brings and will bring real benefits, while the second is yet to be implemented over the next few years. It is evident that the competition will be stiff and will involve all the interested internal and foreign political players that will use important financial resources and technology, in an unprecedented way.
Tactic of electoral blocs
The stakes for the future elections are very high and will oblige the promoters of the two options to concentrate their efforts to the maximum, maybe also in an unprecedented way.
Even if the present analysis revealed that the ruling parties made important investments until now, they are all related to the current and future benefits of the Europeans integration course, in particular to the capacity to promote these benefits as well as the relevant responsibilities in society. This situation does not leave much room for other trump cards. Therefore, the ruling parties have more chances or even the only chance to be able to complete the projects started over the last few years only if they appear before the voters as an electoral bloc. It’s hard now to image such cooperation between the ruling partners-rivals. But they, with all their interests and ambitions, in the middle of last year showed that they can change things. Otherwise, the small and great rivalries between them can inevitably affect the common cause. The Liberal Democratic Party (PLDM) can be the nucleus of such a bloc, but this party is also responsible for good relations with the Democratic Party and Liberal Reforming Party and the good functioning of the common mechanism.
Moreover, a second electoral bloc of the pro-European parties may be needed. The current ruling parties should think about its creation or at least should not hamper its creation. The Liberal Party may be the nucleus of such a bloc, if it is able to reconsider the principles and forms of communicating with the partners.
Such a need also derives from the recent statements of the leader of the PLDM Vlad Filat, who projected that the PCRM will not enter the future legislature. What’s happening in the local organizations of the PCRM lately and what happened earlier at central level, in the Communist parliamentary group, show that certain natural and/or forced processes are aimed at reducing the share of this party in society. If the PCRM is not in Parliament or is represented to a lesser extent in it, then who will be there? It’s worth pondering over. This time, when the geopolitical stake is so high, it’s interesting not only who and with how many votes enters the future legislative body, but also its general configuration.
The same scenario, with the same motives and stakes is relevant for the promoters of the pro-Eastern option. But the political players on this segment of the political arena haven’t yet showed signs that they will change the political behavior so as to have better cooperation for achieving the common goals.
An anecdote on the issue. A guest at a wedding party says a toast to the bride and groom: I wish you a solid house, to get on well as the salt and bread, to respect your parents and to have all kinds of riches… But I don’t think this will happen…
Valeriu Vasilică, IPN
