After most of EU nations have lessened their dependence on Russian gas due to the Ukraine invasion, only the Republic of Moldova, alongside Austria, Slovakia, Italy, Hungary, Croatia and Slovenia, continue the relationship with Gazprom, IPN reports, referring to Reuters, which explains what will happen after Ukraine will no longer extend the gas transit deal with Russia, which expires at the end of this year.
Ukraine has not imported gas directly from Russia since 2015 but uses the transit system to supply homes and businesses. The system maintains pressure levels for both European and domestic supply, said Reuters.
Ukraine has experience in managing transit shutdowns - such as those in 2006 and 2009 - and has tested the system to ensure it can function if supply from Russia ceases. Ukrainian energy officials and industry sources have repeatedly said there is no threat to Ukraine by stopping transit, saying Ukrainian compressors could pump gas from storage facilities in the west to the east.
According to Moldova’s Minister of Energy Victor Parlicov, after the multiple energy crises induced by Russia, the Republic of Moldova no longer depends on the gas delivered by Gazprom. He recently stated on a television channel that the period when there was only one gas supplier in Moldova is over and, with the appearance on the market of several suppliers, the prices will become competitive and consumers will benefit from the best charge.
On the other hand, the breakaway region on the left bank of the Nistru, which now owes its existence only to the unpaid Russian gas, risks a collapse. In Chisinau, such a thing is not wanted. Moreover, there is political will to maintain stability in the Transnistrian region and “we will not obstruct the supply of gas from Gazprom even after the expiry of the contract with Ukraine on the transit of Russian natural gas,” the minister said on another occasion. “But alternative solutions are needed, if it will not be possible to transport gas on the traditional route from the east directly to the Transnistrian region. From a technical point of view, it is possible to deliver natural gas to the Transnistrian region through the Turkish Stream route and then through the Trans-Balkan route in physical reverse flow,” stated Victor Parlicov.
Under these conditions, Russia could lose around $4.5 billion annually if exports halt, based on an expected average gas price to Europe of $320 per 1,000 cubic meters in 2025. Its daily exports via Ukraine to Europe currently stand at more than 40 million cubic meters, according to Gazprom’s data that are quoted by Reuters.
