Foreign publication comments Voronin's lack of interest for GUAM

The New York-based web publication Georgia Daily analyzes the statements made Tuesday by the Moldovan president as to the inefficiency of the regional organization GUAM, Info-Prim Neo reports. “After Uzbekistan left the organization, Moldova has been the weak link in GUAM, with Voronin among others suggesting that Chisinau might leave, only to reverse himself shortly thereafter,” the publication writes. GUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova) was created with the encouragement of the United States and other Western governments not only as an alternative to the Commonwealth of Independent States but also as a grouping through the territory of which oil and gas from the Caspian Basin could reach Europe without passing through the Russian Federation. Georgia Daily highlights three reasons to think Vladimir Voronin's statements are more serious this time. First, relations between Chisinau and Kyiv have sharply deteriorated as a result of the gas war between the Russian Federation and Ukraine, a conflict that has had a negative impact on Moldova even though it was not a direct participant. Second, Moldova's relations with Baku and Tbilisi have also become more distant not only because many in Chisinau do not believe that these two governments are taking Moldova's interests into sufficient account or that GUAM will, as some in these capitals earlier insisted, open the way for its members to Europe. And third, Voronin has always been more sensitive to Russian opposition to GUAM than the other leaders, and that opposition is growing given what many in Moscow see as the anti-Russian policies being pursued by Georgia and a lesser extent by Azerbaijan. Consequently, the Moldovan leader appears to want to distance himself and his country from them. “Whether Chisinau will actually decide to leave GUAM or whether Voronin's remarks now reflect his frustration at being ignored or treated as the odd man out within the grouping remains an open question,” the publication writes. But the answer is critical. If Moldova goes, GUAM could disappear from the scene, but if it remains, Voronin's standing at home and in many places abroad will fall. “That is something Moscow understands, and it is likely that after Voronin's comments, the Russian government will take steps to help him decide, a strategy that could very well work, especially if neither the other members of GUAM nor its backers do something soon to try to counter that possibility,” writes Georgia Daily, quoted by Info-Prim Neo.