The year 2019 will be crucial for Moldova’s democracy and its European course and for the sustainability of the European project in general, politologist Dionis Cenușa wrote in a feature article for IPN Agency.
Among the forecasts for 2019, the politologist mentioned the reconfiguration of the European agenda. Depending on the results of the elections of this February, Moldova’s European agenda will be redefined. This way, the speed of reforms could be again accelerated or the reform priorities will be changed. In case of the scenario when the DPM remains in power, the taste for reforms according to the Association Agreement could return, but this would not also mean profoundness in reforms.
At domestic level, Dionis Cenușă anticipates the pro-European opposition will become stronger after the elections. If the opposition’s presence is below voters’ expectations, post-electoral protests could be initiated, coordinated by the electoral bloc ACUM (PAS, “Dignity and Truth Platform” and others) and inspired by Armenia’s experience of 2018.
In another development, the politologist noted the EU’s financial assistance will be restored in 2019. After the parliamentary elections, the EU could establish a dialogue with any of the ruling parties that will be in power. Even with the eventual extension of the PDM’s government for another four years, the EU could restore its financial assistance based on the previous, partially renewed political and technical conditionality.
Dionis Cenușa predicts that at regional level, Georgia will become a leader in the Eastern Partnership. In reality, the reform agenda is permanently in danger in each of the three countries owing to the interference by oligarchic groups in the decision-making process. The extension of the period during which European officials ignore noxious aspects of the oligarchic factor in Georgia amplifies the dimension of the EU’s future disappointment in Georgia.
The Romanian presidency of the EU is expected to be a failure. The politologist said the SDP-ALDE government ruined Romania’s authority without which it will be very hard to ensure the powerful administration of all the European national governments.
There is also a high probability of a chaotic Brexit with negative effects on the European citizens, including the about 400,000 Romanians who include Moldovan citizens with dual nationality.
The politologist forecast the Eurosceptical forces will emancipate at the European parliamentary elections of May 23-26, 2019. In such circumstances, the number of Eurosceptical MEPs could exceed 200, which is yet insufficient for occupying 1/3 of the seats in the European Parliament. Such a conjuncture will advantage the political regimes in Moldova and other countries in the European neighborhood, where the government is guided by oligarchic groups and by the principles of kleptocracy.
The extension of the rule of law crisis to other states inside the EU, including Romania, is another negative forecast of the politologist. In the process of adopting the European budgetary framework for the next seven years during 2019-2020, the European Commission will have to include preconditions related to the rule of law for accessing structural funds.
Dionis Cenușa also forecasts the disassembling of the sanctions imposed against Russia. Russia’s stake is to capitulate to the Europeans’ solidarity for the cause of Ukraine so as to isolate the latter, and to rebuild its own economy and diminish immediately the social pressure at home.
The escalation of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine is the last forecast made by the politologist. He is convinced that the Kremlin will not renounce the measures to exclude Ukraine from the Sea of Azov and the Black Seas and this would affect the economy of the regions with access to the sea and could increase their dissatisfaction with the central authorities of Ukraine. The expanding poverty in Russian society, which affects 13-22% of the citizens of Russia, will increase the external aggressiveness of the regime of Vladimir Putin. The latter tries to replace the domestic progress with the restoration of national pride by external offensives of any type, concluded the political pundit.
