First electoral test for new government. Op-Ed by Victor Pelin

“In general, the new local elections that will take place on November 21 in 15 localities hold special interest also because they are held amid two very acute crises – the gas supply crisis and the pandemic crisis. This way, we convince ourselves that the good times cannot be declared in advance. In this regard, we can paraphrase a famous saying: “If you want to make God laugh, tell him about the plans to establish good times...”
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New local elections

The municipal elections are very important in any society. In a series of developed states, the municipal elections involve more voters than the general elections. The electoral experience of the Republic of Moldova for now shows the citizens have a greater interest in the general elections than in the local ones. This happens even if the citizens’ trust in the mayor’s offices is two-three times greater than in Parliament. One of the explanations for such a state of affairs is the fact that the mayor’s offices are very poor, except for those of the municipalities of Chisinau, Bălți etc. The other mayor’s offices barely manage to cover several tens of percentage of the costs with own funds. The rest of the necessary money comes from transfers from the center.

Even if the municipal elections are actually administrative elections, during electoral cycles it was noticed that the support for the parties that are in power is practically transmitted to the same extent to municipalities when mayors and local councilors are elected. For example, in the local elections of 2015, the Democratic Party of Moldova (PDM) became the party of mayors – PDM’s candidates were elected mayors in approximately 1/3 of the settlements together with the gradual takeover at the central level by the executive coordinator. Later, the mayors, for their part, become the main electoral agents of the ruling parties at the local level. This way, the rule according to which the ruling parties support the local administrations represented by their mayors, while the local administrations support the given parties in the general elections has worked in time. It happened so in the parliamentary elections of 2019, when, owing to the authority of mayors, PDM gained the highest score in its political history - 1/3 of the seats of MP in single-member constituencies.

The current ruling party – the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) – assured that it will not follow the previous governments’ practice to financially support primarily the mayor’s offices that are managed by representatives of the party. We cannot know if PAS will deliver its promise. The point is we do not know for now how many mayors the party has. We only know that as part of the ACUM Bloc, alongside the Party “Dignity and Truth Platform” (PPDA), PAS obtained posts of mayor in 172 localities, which is about 19% of the settlements. We can therefore presume that PAS has mayors in approximately 10% of the localities.

From the aforementioned, it becomes evident that the municipal elections are a very useful test for estimating the evolution of the citizens’ support for the central power. In this regard, the new local elections that will take place on November 21 in 15 localities (~1.7%), where the posts of mayors fell vacant during the past half a year, will represent the first assessment of the support enjoyed by PAS after the parliamentary elections. The geography of the new elections is relatively representative and covers the north, center and south of the Republic of Moldova. The new local mayoral elections are usually won by candidates of parliamentary parties. It is noteworthy that the posts of mayor that are now vacant in the 15 localities were held by representatives of the ACUM Bloc.

Pre-electoral statistics

The fielding of candidates for the mayoral elections in the 15 localities is over, but the registration of the aspirants ends on October 30, three weeks before election day. The table below shows that PAS will have candidates in all the 15 communities. The main opposition force, the Electoral Bloc of Communists and Socialists (BECS), will have candidates in most of the localities. It should be noted that the Ecologist Green Party (PEV) registered candidates in ¼ of the settlements, while the other ten participating parties by 1-2 candidates.     

There is no doubt that the main intrigue at the new local elections of November 21 is caused by the competition in the municipality of Bălți. Given the results achieved in the recent parliamentary elections by contenders competing for the mayoralty of the municipality of Bălți, it seems that the BECS candidate Aleksandr Nesterovschi has the biggest chances of winning. However, the opinion poll conducted by IMAS in September shows that following Renato Usațîi’s resignation, Nicolai Grigorishin, who replaced Usatîi in 2018 after winning the new elections then, has the greatest chances of scoring a victory. It is curious that for the new local elections of November 21, 2021, ex-mayor Renato Usatîi withdrew his support for Grigorishin, saying that he will no longer support this candidate. In such circumstances, the intrigue of the mayoral elections in the municipality of Bălți becomes much more pronounced. It is fueled by the involvement in the competition of Șor Party MP Marina Tauber, who will try to persuade the residents of Bălți that she can replicate the example of the municipality of Orhei in Bălți.

Also, the confrontation of the PAS and BECS candidates in half of the localities where new local elections will take place holds interest, as does the competition between the PAS and PPDA candidates in two settlements.

Conclusions

In general, the new local elections that will take place on November 21 in 15 localities hold special interest also because they are held amid two very acute crises – the gas supply crisis and the pandemic crisis. This way, we convince ourselves that the good times cannot be declared in advance. In this regard, we can paraphrase a famous saying: “If you want to make God laugh, tell him about the plans to establish good times....”