Experts say Transnistrian dispute will be solved, but not soon and not spectacularly

Well-known experts consider the Transnistrian conflict will be resolved, but not quickly and not in a spectacular way. Synthesized views and forecasts on the development of the Transnistrian conflict formulated by independent experts were included in the Final Study on the Nistru conflict carried our as part of the project “Council of Experts in Conflict Settlement”. The study was presented during a news conference at Info-Prim Neo on Thursday, February 11. The project is implemented by the Public Policy Institute, which has earlier synthesized six views on the Transnistrian dispute. According to the Institute's director Arcadie Barbarosie, the Final Study was compiled on the basis of the six studies after they were completed. Barbarose said the Transnistrian conflict is a geopolitical one, generated by Moldova's wish to build a unitary state and Russia's unwillingness to allow this, as well as by the influence of different international criminal and semicriminal groups, mainly from Russia and Ukraine. The foundation of the EU Border Assistance Mission to Moldova and Ukraine aroused Russia's animosity that lead to the imposing of a ban on wine imports and the sending of 'humanitarian aid' to Tiraspol. Nevertheless, Barbarosie is convinced that Russia is tired of the Smirnov regime as it gives it only headaches. Oazu Nantoi, program director at the Public Policy Institute, said the project was needed in order to formulate a broad view on the Transnistrian conflict on the basis of the information obtained by a group of independent experts who monitored the situation. The events that followed the appearance of the six studies on which the Final Study is based, the analysis of the political processes on the two banks of the Nistru, the behavior of different actors involved in the negotiation process showed that the experts were right and described the real situation on the left bank of the Nistru. Nantoi said a deep internal conflict took shape for the first time since the breaking out of the conflict in Transnistria. At the same time, the EU makes effort to engage the people living on the two banks of the Nistru in the socioeconomic activity, while the population in Transnistria is tired of the Smirnov regime. This shows that the regime in Tiraspol becomes weaker and Moldova has reasons to be optimistic. Expert Igor Botan, executive director of the Association for Participative Democracy, said the new government is taking steps to resolve the conflict. Though a spectacular resolution is impossible, the new administration seems to know how to unify the country. He also said that the three Presidents of Moldova promised that the dispute will be solved quickly, but did not manage to achieve this objective. The situation left by Vladimir Voronin is the most difficult. When he took over in 2001, the relations between Chisinau and Tiraspol were not so disastrous as in the summer of 2009, when Voronin left, Igor Botan said. The three experts are sure that the Transnistrian dispute will not be solved easily and quickly because Moldova has never had a concrete action plan for resolving it and a strategy for communicating with the Transnistrian population. They consider that more joint projects should be developed so that the people in Transnistria see that the population on the right bank of the Nistru enjoy high living standards, freedom and democracy. The Final Study on CD will be submitted to the parliamentary commissions, the Government, the diplomatic corps, NGOs and education establishments.