Currently, the risks threatening Ukraine are concentrated at different levels. The first and most serious challenge is related to the ensuring of territorial integrity and sovereignty. In an interview with IPN, senior researcher at the Odessa Branch of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, Ukraine, Iulia Serbina said that if the authorities do not manage to pay salaries and pensions, in autumn the country will face more violent protests – of the hungry people.
The expert said the economic crisis, caused mainly by the corrupt activity of the previous government, intensified following the occupation and annexation of Crimea by Russia. “Reforms should be done, which will be painful, but their successful implementation will depend on the intelligent communication with the population,” stated Iulia Serbina.
In the given situation, the EU and the U.S. must work out a so-called “Marshal Plan” for Ukraine, while the financial support is needed not only for implementing reforms, but also for supporting the financial welfare of the state. The one billion euro that the EU will allocate to Ukraine is surely a large amount, but it does not change the financial situation of the state and does not cover its needs.
If salaries and pensions are not paid, the fiscal pressure on small and medium-sized businesses increases and the charges on public utilities are raised, the social dissatisfaction will grow and we can expect new social protests to be staged in autumn. In fact, these events will be different from the activism on Euromaidan as they will be more radical. The Euromaidan represented a protest of the free people, but the subsequent events may be a protest of the hungry ones and will pose a greater threat, added Iulia Serbina.
In order to ensure the integrity of the state, the agenda must obligatorily include decentralization, which would envision the separation of the powers of the state administration from those of the local self-governing authorities and the organizational and financial development of regions.
Absolutely all the spheres of the social life are now in a risk zone, but the increased level of self-organization of the people and their willingness to provide the necessary assistance are positive aspects. In particular, about 40 million hrivnas (approximately US$4m) has been collected for the needs of the Ukrainian army through telephones and SMSes during ten days. This is not the only example of the kind.
As to the possible influence of the developments in Ukraine on Moldova, Iulia Serbina said no essential changes like those in Ukraine will take place in Moldova. It is evident that Moldovan society is not very interested in the events happening in Ukraine. Certain social activism can appear rather as a result of crisis situations in the Moldovan economy.
