According to exit polls, more than 54 percent of Poles supported three democratic parties in Poland’s election on 15 October. As a result, they won an absolute majority of seats in the parliament and will be able to form a government. After eight years of in power, the illiberal Law and Justice (PiS) government will have to step down, Piotr Buras, Head of the European Council on Foreign Relations’ Warsaw Office, wrote for IPN.
The European official said the election is a triumph of both democracy and liberalism. With the highest turnout in the history of post-1989 Polish democracy, voters showed that they care about the future of the country and want to shape it. And the opposition won this election despite its deeply unfair nature: the ruling party used the financial and institutional power of the state to its advantage, but failed to succeed.
The opposition’s victory is the result of a growing fatigue with the PiS government in the society, beyond the groups usually supporting the liberals. In a poll in early October, 61 percent of Poles said that they would like to see a change of the government. Only 24 per cent were absolutely sure that they wanted the PiS to stay in power. The deteriorating economic situation, high inflation and incompetence of the government are the main reasons for the PiS defeat.
In the past, PiS’s popularity was based upon the appeal of generous social benefits. However, many voters have become concerned about what was perceived as unfair distribution of public money (not only those really in need benefitted from the state expenditures). Also, the flipside of the high level of direct payments to the citizens has been the deteriorating state of public services (crisis of the underfunded education sector and health service). While 2015-2019 many citizens believed that they were better off with the PiS government (even if they did not necessarily share the party’s ideological positions), in the last four years they have become more and more disappointed.
The liberals have won the absolute majority but the process of forming a government may not be easy and straightforward. President Andrzej Duda is likely to nominate a representative of the PiS (still the strongest party and politically close to Duda) as the prime minister and let him or her form the government. Only if this government fails to secure a majority in the parliament, it will be the turn of the liberals. This means that the PiS will likely remain in power at least until mid-December as a caretaker government with full control over state institutions. The real test of whether and how the power will be transferred to the new government will come at the end of the year.
The victory of the opposition opens the way for a massive reorientation of Poland’s domestic and European policy. The main immediate goal of the new government will be to remove PiS people from the state institutions, state owned companies, and public television. The promise of the liberals is to restore the rule of law and get the EU funds (frozen by the Commission due to the deficits of the rule of law) released as quickly as possible. But even with full control of parliament, the new government will face tremendous obstacles. President Duda can veto each piece of legislation and the new government will not have the 3/5 majority needed to overrule his veto. Moreover, it will often be impossible to roll back the PiS’s liberal reforms without taking decisions on the verge of legality.
Poland under the new Tusk government will be a more constructive player in the EU politics, seeking to mend relations with key partners and restore trust in its pro-European credentials. However, with a strong and hostile anti-European opposition – PiS and the far-right Konfederacja – representing more than 40 per cent of the voters, European policy-making will be the subject of a polarised political debate which will limit the government’s room for maneuver as it faces very serious challenges in transforming the post-PiS country and restoring the rule of law.
Tusk will inherit a very difficult economic situation. The inflation is expected to remain high for the next two years and the state’s financial resources are strained due to high spending and numerous off-budget items. Public debt is at a record high of 1,5 trillion PLN.
