The think tank “Expert-Grup” considers the economic growth factors in Transnistria in 2014 were temporary and will become weaker in 2015, IPN reports, quoting the publication “Transnistrian Economic Reality”.
The publication says that the first signs of recovery appeared after the downward trend of the start of 2013. But this trend followed the compensatory growth in the metallurgical and energy sectors of Transnistria and the resumption of work by the Metallurgical Plant as well as the improvement of the situation in the agricultural sector following the favorable weather conditions. As a result, the region’s foreign trade has essentially increased. Exports grew by 48%, while imports by 8.9%.
“Expert-Grup” noted that in 2014 Transnistria was marked by an anemic dynamic growth of the monetary and investment parameters compared with the growth witnessed on the right side of the Nistru River. The greater economic uncertainty in the region led to a decrease in investment activity. The formation of capital fell by 2.6%, while the investments on the right side of the Nistru grew by 2.1%. The monetary base in Transnistria also decreased, resulting in lower consumption. The money base balance declined by 5.8% at a time when on the right side it rose by 13.6%.
According to “Expert-Grup”, structural reforms are needed in the region to stimulate such fundamental growth factors as investments and consumption. Therefore, reforms are required to improve the investment climate so as to encourage the development of the SMEs and to increase resilience and trust in the banking sector in order to facilitate the local companies’ access to bank loans.
A basic desideratum is to improve the dialogue between the Moldovan and Transnistrian authorities, based on technical and apolitical aspects related to the implementation of the minimal requirements of the Association Agreement with the EU. This depends on three major conditions: harmonization of the quality infrastructure and of the origin rules, and ensuring of transparency in the provision of state aid. Without such actions, the region’s economy could decrease by 3-5% in 2015 and could then enter a long stagnation period.
