In 2018, Moldova’s economy could grow by 4%, experts of the independent think tank “Expert-Grup” estimated in the 17th economic conference MEGA. According to them, the economic growth forecast for next year is based on the rise in agricultural production, continuation of the foreign budget support and consumption growth, IPN reports.
The experts said the forecast also shows a series of concerns about the competitiveness of the economy and uncertainty about the parliamentary elections of 2018, which could affect the investment decisions of the business community, with repercussions for bank lending, and could camouflage the effects of the slow pace of reforms. One of these is the risk of political pressure on the budgetary-fiscal and monetary policy, through administrative interventions of an electoral character.
According to the experts, it goes to the rise in salaries, provision of social welfare, public investments or even the relaxation of monetary policy for stimulating lending. This could essentially destabilize the system of public finances and fuel inflationist risks, undermining economic growth. The enhancement of Moldovan economy’s competitiveness should remain priority zero for the authorities.
Among the findings of the experts is also the fact that the Republic of Moldova constantly misses the competition in the region for foreign markets and foreign direct investment, ranking among the last countries in Central and Eastern Europe by the share of exports in the GDP and FDI per capita. Moldova also misses the competition for the own labor force. The number of persons with higher education who leave the county annually is on the rise.
