Moldova’s and Ukraine’s dream of joining the EU is accompanied by days of practical approach to the challenges. In the view of Leo Litra, researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations, after years of stagnation in the Western Balkans, the opening of talks with Chisinau and Kiev gives a strong boost to the EU’s enlargement policy and stimulates the reform process in Moldova and Ukraine, IPN reports, with reference to ecfr.eu.
In particular, the expert noted that even if the enlargement has regained momentum, the progress in Moldova and Ukraine will depend on four factors that will determine the substance of progress and, ultimately, their accession to the EU.
The first factor concerns the EU’s internal policies: the rise of extremist and populist parties in the European Parliament and member states could threaten the bloc’s enlargement plans. As part of the establishment of the new mandate of the EU institutions, the EU is unlikely to change its policy towards Moldova and Ukraine. However, some member states could put the brakes on the process, especially for Ukraine, as it happened to other candidate countries in the past. At some point, Ukraine can be ready, but it will not join unless the EU is ready to accept it.
Possible bilateral frustrations are put in second place: the EU enlargement policy has often been on the agenda of bilateral relations between EU Member States and candidate countries. Due to the declared dissatisfaction with the (low) level of protection of national minorities by Kyiv, Hungary blocked almost half of all the EU’s decisions relating to Ukraine. The trap of “bilateralizing” the accession agenda, as shown by the examples in the Western Balkans, can have devastating results.
Progress on reforms: Regardless of internal debates in the EU, Moldova and Ukraine will have to continue to demonstrate loyalty to the EU by implementing the required reforms. Even so, this does not guarantee accession, as some Member States may not fully respect the merit-based approach as the sole reason for maintaining progress in the negotiations. However, it is difficult to imagine joining the EU without the candidate countries carrying out the agreed reforms.
Security environment: Despite Russia’s invasion, Ukraine has managed to navigate from the status of associated country to that of candidate country (just like Moldova – IPN). But with all the possible progress in the formal negotiations, it is very unlikely that the accession (of Ukraine – IPN) will take place before the end of the war. And while the war has been an important trigger for many reforms, if it comes to the need to choose, Ukraine will give precedence to security over integration.
The author believes that Moldova, Ukraine and the EU must maintain the current momentum. The recent experience of the Western Balkans suggests that any pause in the accession process can make the resumption very difficult. The most important thing is that in the next six months, while the EU institutions are in the process of reshuffling, the countries should carry out their agenda, take care of the assessment/screening of the issues that are to be addressed in the negotiations. Deepening the technical issues of pre-negotiations will allow the Republic of Moldova, Ukraine and the EU to address the substantive issues.
The author predicts that the Hungarian presidency of the Council of the EU in the second half of this year will not prioritize the enlargement. Ukraine, in particular, should use this time to adopt the two roadmaps on the rule of law and public administration reforms. If well implemented, the roadmaps will create a solid argument for opening negotiations by chapters, while Poland will take over the presidency of the Council of the EU next year, concluded the expert.
