Expert claims IMF pessimistic predictions regarding Republic of Moldova economic growth is influenced by internal and extern factors

The head of the International Relations “Expert-Group” program, Alex Oprunenco, declared for Moldova.org portal, cited by Info-Prim Neo, that the pessimistic economic growth prognosis of the International Money Fund (IMF) are natural, as the economic growth is affected by several external shocks. According to the expert, these influence factors are the embargo of the Russian Federation on alcoholic drinks and vegetal products from the Republic of Moldova, the increase of gas prices, blocked cargo traffic through Transnistria and difficulties of cargo transportation through Ukraine etc. Oprunenco claims these factors already had an impact on macroeconomic parameters such as the industrial production, which had a negative evolution in the first half of this year. The “wine crisis” also demonstrated how narrow is the export direction in geographical terms (the CIS and especially Russia) and the variety of merchandise (the low quality and value added tax of the products). The expert claims that on the internal arena the economic growth is determined by the increase of private consumption, fueled by the impressive incomes brought by Moldovan immigrants from abroad. In the same time, the real sector of economy produces neither enough work places nor investment potential resulting from production activities. Therefore the qualified work force continues to immigrate, and the financial resources sent into the country are spent for consumption. The reasons of the economic growth prognosis reduction for this year and the next one are the same. This means that the IMF doesn’t expect a drastic decrease in natural gas prices or that „Rospotrebnadzor” will unexpectedly recommend Moldovan wines to Russians, Oprunenco mentioned. The cited source also added that the IMF does neither expect a comeback of the real sector of our economy. The International Money Fund (IMF) has cut down in half – from 6% to 3% - the prognosis regarding economic growth in the Republic of Moldova in 2006, while the regional economy is expected to grow according to the IMF report regarding world economic development (World Economic Outlook), published on Thursday, September 14. The inflation rate was also given a worse appreciation, up to 10.5%, compared to the previous 9.4%, as well as the balance of the current account – from 5.4% to 10.5% of the Gross Domestic Product.