The situation in Moldova highlights the political turning points that can impact the European agenda, and which are applicable, to some extent, in other countries in the region, writes the political reseacher Dionis Cenuşă in an analytical article for the IPN News Agency.
The political researcher observes a causal relation between the presence of the oligarchic factor and its destructive character for the internal political dynamics, the "whitening" of the pro-Russian forces and, finally, the benevolent balancing of the geopolitical orientation in favor of Russia.
Dionis Cenuşă underlines that the oligarchic element results from the disturbance of the democratic system, which, if not removed, produces negative effects for the alternation of the power and the vitality of the institutions.
He recalls that the oligarchic regime has discredited the EU's presence in Moldova and can do the same in Ukraine and Georgia, if it does not become the subject of EU’s political conditionality and sectoral reforms, particularly in the area of justice. The EU's discrediting in the Moldovan case came from tolerating the political forces associated with both the oligarchic influence and the European vector. The latter’s image has been degraded in a grave and irrecoverable way, points out Dionis Cenuşă.
In his opinion, against the backdrop of disappointment in the old pro-European forces, the political system needs time to generate new political parties, which could become credible to the more Western-oriented public, which also is demanding of reforms.
In such circumstances of political confusion, considers the political researcher, the forces with a conservative attitude towards reforms, close to the desirable political profile for Russia, become more attractive to the electorate. Consequently, although the European integration is kept in force, it is however relativized and balanced by normalizing relations with Russia, including with the Eurasian vector, Dionis Cenuşă thinks.
Given the e(in)volutions in Ukraine and Georgia, we can deduce that the EU has learned very little from the Moldovan case regarding the effects of tolerating oligarchic elements. Therefore, the re-adjustment of the Russian factor, similar to the Moldovan model, acquires the nuances of an increasingly real scenario, concluded the political researcher.
