The economy in 2021 is expected to recover gradually. The GDP will rise by about 6% this year, while in 2022-2024 the economic growth will remain on an upward trend at about 4%, being in the proximity of the potential GDP, according to the medium-term macroeconomic projection of the Ministry of Economy, IPN reports.
The projection says the industrial sector in 2021 will return to a positive trend. Owing to the expected rise in external demand in the region following vaccination against the novel coronaries, the situation of the exporting sectors will improve, including at Free Economic Zones, where the industrial activity is projected to rise by 3.9%. In the other years covered by the forecast, the industrial sector is expected to develop stable and positively, based on 3-4% growth.
After a year of severe drought, the agricultural production this year is expected to grow by about 29% and by 3-5% the next few years, if the weather conditions are relatively favorable and investments in the sector go up.
The investment activity in 2021 will continue to be affected by the consequences of the pandemic, but will rise by 2%. Public investments in infrastructure, including those financed by the development partners, will continue, but the budget limitations will now allow this to growth. However, the favorable lending situation and the tendency to revitalize the economy will contribute to higher private investments.
Investments in Free Economic Zones are expected to rise twice compared with last year and the investment projects planned for 2020 are expected to be resumed and new projects will be launched if the external environment improves. In 2022-2024, the investments are expected to grow by about 4% annually.
However, given the current pandemic situation, more severe restrictions could be reintroduced for protecting the population’s health and preventing the spread of COVID-19. This can influence the forecast data.
