Early legislative elections as stake of 2011 local elections. Info-Prim Neo analysis, part I

The election contenders involved in the campaign preceding the local elections employ unprecedented resources in the battle, including financial, technological, PR, personnel, ideological, and administrative ones, official and underground resources with immediate and long-term effect. Certainly they hope they will recover the money after the elections because the politicians are not philanthropists by definition. [“Cherchez la Famme”] The election campaign was prepared beforehand and started long before the electoral period, sometimes in breach of the law. The large number of expensive posters concerning the 'solutions' to the problems faced by the residents of Chisinau, proposed by two future election contenders, and the new trolleybuses brought to Chisinau at the right time are only some of the relevant examples. The runners resort to new procedures to present their electoral 'offer', like launches of electoral programs by chapters and o-called public debates {(see the analysis published on May 16, 2011 )}, and mobilize a large number of people, including journalists, in different places, usually in open air. The printing of fake newspapers represents a new electoral facet that involves many resources and risks. It looks as if much more is invested in this campaign than in the campaigns for the constitutional referendum and the parliamentary elections of November 2010, if not in both of them taken together. As nothing in this world is accidental, we should look for the stake of these actions and, maybe, the authors. As they say “Cherchez la Famme”. Evidently, this stake should be searched for in the political and power keeping and winning spheres. There cannot be another greater stake than the causing, holding and wining of the early legislative elections because the central power is more longed for and it gives more advantages to the ruling parties that the local power. There are a number of signs leading to such a conclusion. [Local elections as test for parliamentary elections] The Alliance for European Integration (AEI) did not manage to elect the head of state and, respectively, did not unlock the political crisis. Thus, willingly or nor, it narrows its maneuvering space and paves the way for the only clear solution – early parliamentary elections. It is obvious that the situation of the ruling alliance and of its components in the possible early elections and after them will depend on the results that they will obtain in the June 5 local elections. The spirits of the voters from June until November-December, when the early elections may take place, will not change much. They can change, but not in favor of the AEI – the winter is coming, the bills for public utilities will increase, the disappointment will be greater, etc... Therefore, each of the member parties of the AEI focus on their own performance in the local elections and thus provoke disputes inside the alliance. The early elections for the PCRM are the only chance of returning to power at national level, but the party's rating will take a more definite shape in the local elections, especially in the race for the Chisinau City Hall and the Municipal Council. Who holds power in Chisinau, holds power in the country. This statement is now closer to the truth. During the last ten years, the Communists made the same mistakes as they counted more on the image of the party and the party's leader Vladimir Voronin and on the administrative resources, than on reliable persons. It seems that now Igor Dodon is himself a rather attractive figure for a part of the voters. Traditionally, the Communists hold rather many seats in the Chisinau Municipal Council. A possibly favorable result for the PCRM in the local elections will make the party less cooperative in the negotiations for voting in the AEI's candidate as head of state. This position will inevitably lead to early parliamentary elections. But the significant change in the ratio of forces inside the AEI, in accordance with the results of the local elections, will tempt those with a better result to try their luck in the new early legislative elections, possibly by using the current coalition partners. Thus, the components of the AEI and the PCRM invest more, risk more and stake more in the local elections. The main goal is to keep or take over power at national level. [Godea's defection, Bodiu's withdrawal and Chirtoaca's 'advantage'] This huge stake makes the election runners to take new, unexpected, nontraditional, costly and risky steps. One of these steps was the withdrawal of the Liberal Democratic Party's candidate Victor Bodiu. from the race for the mayoralty of Chisinau. It was probably a difficult decision for a party that claims to be the leader in the ruling alliance or at least a party with the same potential as the opposition party, the PCRM. The PLDM could have avoided taking such a decision if the stake had been only the Chisinau City Hall and if the PCRM had aimed only for the City Hall. As the stake is so great for the PLDM, which is a party with own interests and identity, the promise to support the Liberal Party's candidate Dorin Chirtoaca may be not sincere and sufficient enough. It is two weeks since the promise was made, but the impressive posters with the words “Vote in Victor Bodiu as Mayor”, which mislead the voters, have not been yet taken down. It does not seem accidental that a large number of posters with the same content, of a very high quality, had been put in the mailbox of the author of the analysis and all the neighbors living in the building. Dorin Chirtoaca may be unable to benefit from the support of the partners from the AEI in the battle with the PCRM also because of the unexpected electoral move of the first vice president of the PLDM Mihai Godea, who left the party and joined the race for the mayoralty of Chisinau as an independent candidate. The withdrawal of Victor Bodiu and the behavior of Vlad Filat and other important political players, who are yet not seen on the political arena, may also produce effects. Vlad Filat repeatedly named these persons, who are yet unseen, 'puppeteers', if he is not the puppeteer himself. Everything is possible in the Moldovan politics. Such methods are broadly used in the political sphere (and business sphere) of countries with much older political traditions. One of these procedures is named {stalking-horse}. This and other aspects of the fragmentation and reformation of the Moldovan political sector will be described in part II of the Info-Prim Neo analysis “Early legislative elections as stake of 2011 local elections”. [Valeriu Vasilica, Info-Prim Neo]