Drought has catastrophic effects on Moldova’s population and economy

President Vladimir Voronin termed this year’s drought catastrophic for the present and future of the country’s economy. The head of state made this conclusion during a meeting with the diplomatic corps accredited in Moldova. During the meeting, the head of the Hydro-Meteorological State Service, Valeriu Cazacu, and Minister of Agriculture and Food Industry Anatolie Gorodenco presented ample information on the issue. One of the main findings by the rapporteurs was that this year’s drought has a greater intensity and extent than that of 1946. Over the past 10 days air temperature was 3.5-4.5 degrees above the average and oscillated constantly between 38 and 40 degrees Celsius. Such a phenomenon has never been recorded in Moldova in the entire period covered by official meteorological readings. Under this aspect, this year’s drought exceeded the intensity of that recorded in 1946-1947, which caused a large-scale mortality and famine in the country. Drought affected over 1.2 million hectares, which represents some 84 percent of the arable land. The disaster is particularly intense in the central districts of Orhei, Telenesti, Hancesti, in the northern districts of Balti, Falesti, Soroca, Soldanesti, and in the southern districts of Cimislia, Comrat and Cahul. As a result, the amount of the first-group grains harvested in these districts is 2.5 times below official forecasts, and the direct production loss constitutes about a billion lei. For legume and corn, production loss is expected to make up 72 percent of the last year’s output, which is 3.4 billion lei. For the crops known as ‘technical’ – sunflower, beet, tobacco and others- this sum is expected to amount to 1.5 billion lei. Loss in fruit production will ad up to 1.7 billion lei. Thus, direct production loss in field and perennial crops alone, apart from grapes, will constitute 8.5 billion lei in current prices. The minister of agriculture and food industry also pointed out that this decrease in output will inevitably influence the indicators for the animal husbandry sector. The shortage of fodder will cause losses in meat, milk and egg production valued at 3.7 billion lei. Anatolie Gorodenco estimated the total losses caused by drought at roughly 10-12 billion lei. Experts are also concerned about the capacity of farmers to get prepared for the next season, as well as about the state of affairs in the processing industry and the state of the workforce in this sector. It is expected that the given situation will significantly diminish revenue in the State Budget, social fund and the medical insurance system. The consequences at macroeconomic level, including inflation rate, trade balance and balance of payments are yet to be estimated.