IPN analysis: Everyone knows that elections to choose the Bashkan (Governor) of Gagauzia will be held on March 22, but not many know all the contenders for this key post. Below we present an impressive ‘gallery of portraits’ of the favorites of the race and of the ‘secondary characters’.
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For the first time in the history of the elections for the Bashkan of Gagauzia, do these elections take such an important place in Moldova’s information area. The events related to the elections are daily covered and commented by the Moldovan mass media, with the loudest of them making even the well-known Moldovan politicians to reply. This happens several weeks before the election day, when there is yet plenty of time until the final race. This reveals that the Autonomous Territorial Unit of Gagauzia is a region of special importance for Moldova, on which the political climate in the whole country depends to a great extent.
Given the interest in the current problems of the Gauze people, we will describe succinctly all the participants in the electoral race.
Top three
The former member of the Party of Communists (PCRM) Irina Vlah is running in the elections as an independent. This is her second participation in these elections. In 2010 she finished third, having by about 400 votes fewer than the second candidate. She has a decade’s experience as member of Moldova’s Parliament. Until the end of 2014, she headed the PCRM’s party organizations in Gagauzia. At the start of this year, she announced that she defected from Vladimir Voronin’s team to the Party of Communists (PSRM) headed by Igor Dodon. The support given to her by the PSRM in these elections allowed her to make use not only of the Socialists’ potential and resources, but also of the expertise of important offices of the Russian authorities. Another important factor of her campaign is the support thrown to her by the Russian entrepreneur of Gagauz-Moldovan origin Iury Iakubov, who became known in Moldova after he financed the controversial referendum held in Gagauzia in February 2014. This gives us reasons to consider Irina Vlah as one of the main favorites of the Gagauz voters, who are known for their pro-Russian states of spirit. On the other hand, representatives of the administration of the region’s People’s Assembly expressed their disagreement with Irina Vlah’s candidacy, accusing the PSRM of ‘betraying the interests of the Gagauz population’.
The second candidate, who outstripped Vlah in 2010, is the ex-mayor of Comrat town and currently MP representing the Democratic Party (PDM) Nicolai Dudoglo. This politician takes part in these elections for the third time. In 2006 and 2010, Dudoglo conceded the first place to current Bashkan Mihail Formuzal. Several years earlier, he enjoyed solid political authority in the region and many considered him Formuzal’s successor. After joining the PDM, Dudoglo’s rating decreased significantly and the results of the parliamentary elections on the territory of Gagauzia proved this. The Democrats polled only 10% of the vote in Gagauzia, which is 1.5 times less than the general outcome per country. At the same time, the accession to the PDM ensured access to administrative and other kinds of instruments of influence in the local political area. This will indisputably allow obtaining palpable results in the Governor elections. But the fact that Dudoglo makes attempts to distance himself from the PDM, noting on every occasion that he is running as an independent candidate, should not be neglected.
Dmitri Croitor is the only participant who already governed the region as a Bashkan. He was elected Governor in 1999, but in 2002, under the pressure of political circumstances (confrontation with the PCRM and the People’s Assembly controlled by the Communists), he had to tender his resignation. Until 2005, he was Moldova’s official representative in Switzerland (it seems that the conflict with the ruling party of the country ended with mutually acceptable results). According to unofficial reports, he ran a business in Romania together with ex-Premier Ion Sturza. Since 2011, he has served as UN entrepreneurship development program director in Russia. In the current election campaign, he is supported by the head and most of the deputies of the People’s Assembly. As Irina Vlah, he lays emphasis on the relations he has in Russia, but there is yet not convincing evidence in this respect. Even if he separated himself from the region’s life and despite his dubious resignation in 2002, the population has positive recollections of the period during which he held the post of Bashkan. Most of the local commentators are skeptical about Croitor’s chances of qualifying for the second round of voting, but admit that his word can seriously influence the final election outcome.
“Victory is not the most important thing”
The participation in elections is also an important occasion for benefitting from the experience of an electoral struggle or for gaining ground for the future political battles. By all appearances, the principle ‘it's not the winning but the taking part that counts’ is shared by the largest number of candidates.
Valeri Ianioglo has worked for 11 years as first deputy of the Bashkan (three years as the deputy of Croitor and eight years as the deputy of Frormuzal) and is thus one of the most experienced candidates in terms of problems related to the work of the Governor. His rich experience of work in the KGB bodies of the Moldovan Soviet Socialist Republic allowed him to develop organizational skills and volitional qualities. He is supported by the administration of the influential public movement “United Gagauzia” and by the Elderly’s Council of Gagauzia. Together with the current Bashkan, he founded the Party of Regions, but half a year ago their political roads diverged. This situation diminishes his chances in elections, but does not deprive him of the possibility of gaining a sizeable result.
Current head of Ciadir-Lunga district Serghei Buzadji has formed part of Mihail Formuzal’s team for over ten years and is justly considered the favorite of the current Bashkan. However, Buzadji does not enjoy great support on the part of the Gagauz authorities. He has a good reputation in Ciadir-Lunga, but does not yet have stable supporters in other districts of the autonomous unit. It seems that his participation in elections is aimed at asserting himself as a politician with all the prospects deriving from this. His good administrative experience makes us predict that the future Governor will invite him to work as part of his/her team.
Former MP representing the PDM Aleksandr Stoianoglo, who later left this party, already took part in the Bashkan elections, in 2006. He then gained 10% of the poll and ranked last, the fourth. He has the image of a professional and is one of the few Gagauz people who managed to integrate with the administrative elite of Moldova. In 1995-2001, he held the post of Prosecutor of Gagauzia. Afterward, he was named as Deputy Prosecutor General of Moldova. In 2009, after he entered Parliament on the Democratic ticket, he was chosen as Deputy Speaker of the legislative body. Currently, Stoianoglo is regarded as the ‘hidden candidate of the PDM’, but the criticism he levels at the Democrats makes us think that he is running as an independent.
The participation of the ex-mayor of Copceac village and former Communist MP Oleg Garizan in elections can also be considered an attempt to build his own political future in the autonomous unit. Remaining formally a member of the PCRM, Garizan promotes the principles because of which this party had been left by a large number of important figures – from Tkachuk and Muntean to Irina Vlah – during the past year. Garizan has never managed party organizations in Gagauzia and has never been fielded by the PCRM as a candidate in the key elections of the region. However, in virtue of his leadership abilities and personal charisma, he was perceived by many as a rival of Irina Vlah inside the party. When the Communists selected their favorite in the Governor elections of 2010, they chose between Garizan and Vlah. Currently, they are already evident opponents as candidates in the Bashkan elections. By the way, they could be on the same side of the barricades in the second round of voting.
Ruslan Garbaly is the first candidate who hadn’t been directly involved in politics. In the 1990s, he was an entrepreneur. In 1996-1998, he worked at “Oguzbank” - the first and only Gagauz bank that went bankrupt. He held key posts at such giant companies of the wine and cognac industry as “Vismos” and “Aroma”. In 2004-2012, he headed a department of Banca de Economii. He is an active philanthropist and implemented many social projects in Gagauzia as head of the organization “Birlikte Iyilik”, which he founded. He is known as a friend of Oleg Voronin and has close relations with the family of Moldova’s third President Vladimir Voronin.
Leonid Dobrov is the candidate with the longest experience of political work in Gagauzia. Even if he was one of the most important activists of the self-proclaimed Gagauz Republic and then co-author of the idea of the Autonomous Unit of Gagauzia, Dobrov cannot now enjoy the status of a respectable politician. His name is associated with protests, criticism at the main political leaders and lawsuits. In Chisinau, he is regarded as a radical element and an extremist, while in Comrat – rather as a civic activist unable to make compromises. He was banned from entering Ukraine for ‘actions aimed against the country’s territorial integrity’, as the Ukrainian security services said (Dobrov is probably suspected of too intense activism in the Gagauz border villages of Odessa region). He admits openly that he does not count on victory in elections, but does not consider his participation in the elections useless. The current election campaign represents for Dobrov rather the possibility of influencing the electoral message and of promoting his ideas in society – from founding the national Gagauz university to maximally extending the powers of the autonomous unit.
Candidates-enigmas
The list of candidates also includes such figures whose participation in these elections is more than enigmatic. For example, Oleg Kaiky and Sergey Chernev are members of the PDM and faithful comrades of one of the favorites of the electoral race Nicolai Dudoglo. The first is a deputy in the People’s Assembly, elected on the Communist ticket, who later joined the Democratic faction and was named director of “Gagauz-gaz” – the local branch of the state-run company “Moldova-gaz”. Chernev does not need to be presented. He is a former comrade of Mihail Formuzal, who became a critic of Formuzal in 2010. In June 2014, Chernev even used violence against the Bashkan and the Speaker of the People’s Assembly of Gagauzia. Experts’ arguments that the mission of the mentioned contenders is to concede votes to the main favorite of the PDM are partially correct. Moreover, Kaiky acted namely according to this scheme, withdrawing his candidacy last week and calling publicly on his supporters to support Dudoglo. There is no doubt that Kaiky’s example will be followed by Chernev. On the other hand, it’s hard to understand the reasons for such rather simple schemes. Such methods are useful when it is about unknown persons who can gather votes on a foreign electoral field. In this case, if a sum is divided into three and then added again, it won’t become larger.
The last candidate Ilia Anastasov, who is not suspected of campaigning in favor of other candidates, is a well-known entrepreneur from Comrat, who has a good reputation. In the 1990s, he became the founder and the first director of the Gagauz television which is today known as the Public Broadcaster “Teleradio Gagauzia”. Recently, he founded the company “Gagauz Film” and plans to make the first serial about the life of the Gagauz people. He only recently became known in the public sphere. The main feature of his election campaign is that nothing concrete can be said about it. He hasn’t yet presented his program, does not intensely campaign and makes no political statements. In general, Anastasov-television man holds more interest than Anastasov-politician. His participation in the race for the post of Governor generates such questions as “what for?” rather than “with what result?”.
Veaceslav Craciun, IPN
