The escalation in Ukraine’s separatist areas of Donetsk and Lunhansk could at any moment erupt into a full-out war, think some political commentators in Chisinau, according to whom the concentration of an imposing military contingent near the Ukrainian border is increasingly reducing the chances of a peaceful settlement of the conflict. At the same time, some political pundits believe that, rather than starting a war, Russia’s goal now is to bring Ukraine’s economy down.
“The contingent of forces massed by the Russian Federation - in an extremely expensive effort - is a strike force, by no means an ordinary formation. This huge expenditure of hundreds of millions of dollars has been made to prepare this strike force, and the role of this contingent makes sense only if it is used for its direct purpose. Sooner or later this force will be activated. This tension in Luhansk and Donetsk is an attempt to draw the Ukrainian armed forces into greater action,” said political commentator Viorel Cibotaru during a talk show on TVR Moldova.
“The Russian Federation has besieged Ukraine, it is directly harassing it. We see different ways to keep Ukraine under pressure, this situation will erupt at some point. To gather this massive contingent on the borders of Ukraine, to keep all the international public opinion under pressure, to carry out endless negotiations and, in the end, to withdraw without achieving anything seems unbelievable”, said the political commentator Ion Tăbârță.
At the same time, political scientist Victor Juc says that Ukraine is being used by Russia as a maneuvering tool in its power play with the West, with the Kremlin’s goal being to destroy Ukraine economically and gain recognition of its spheres of influence claims.
“Ukraine is extremely vulnerable at the moment. Practically, it can be attacked from all sides. I believe that the likelihood of the Russian Federation attacking Ukraine directly, by military power, is low. Rather, pressure is being put on Ukraine by other means. These being forms of hybrid warfare, businesses leave and no longer invest, diplomatic missions are relocated, tourism is halted and so are flights”, said Victor Juc.
On Friday, the de facto leaders of Donetsk and Lunhansk announced an en masse evacuation of people to Russia on fears of an offensive by the Ukrainian army, something that the Ukrainian government has strongly denied, instead accusing the separatists of staging provocations.
