Moscow’s reaction after the institution of diplomatic parity between Russia and Moldova could include the intensification of propaganda and disinformation elements, political scientist Dionis Cenușa, an associate expert of the Eastern Europe Studies Center of Lithuania, stated in a public debate hosted by IPN. According to him, Russia lost the energy and commercial leverage in the relations with Chisinau and the Kremlin therefore will try to maintain its influence on Moldova through propaganda and disinformation.
Recently, the Moldovan authorities decided to equal the number of diplomatic, administrative and technical specialists at the Embassy of Russia in Chisinau with the number of specialists at Moldova’s Embassy in Russia. At the current stage, each state will be represented, based on the principle of parity, by ten diplomats and 15 administrative and technical employees. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European Integration said the decision was taken following multiple unfriendly actions towards the Republic of Moldova, which do not bear relation to the diplomatic mandate, and attempts to destabilize the internal situation in the country. Dionis Cenușă said the official Chisinau’s decision is correct, but this was defectively communicated to the public.
“Even if the Republic of Moldova’s reaction was correct, justified, the way in which they communicated the decision on the subject was defective. Strategic communication is extremely important, especially in crisis situations. Russia’s reaction can be multidimensional. At particular levels, Russia lost the possibility of influencing the Republic of Moldova’s dependence. It goes to energy security. We now have alternatives to import natural gas even at a much better price. The commercial relations are also a problem of the past, even if we have yet sectors, primarily the agrifood one, where the producers still depend or would like to return to the Russian market. Here, Russia can do something, but the impact will be minimal,” stated IPN’s senior contributor.
The decision on diplomatic parity is to be implemented until August 15, 2023. Dionis Cenușă said the official Chisinau’s decision could be followed by reactions on the part of Moscow, such as the intensification of propaganda and disinformation.
“Most probably, Russia will concentrate on communication, on propaganda. We will see an intensification of subjects related to russophobia, attempts to ensure separation between what they call ”the regime in Chisinau” and the rest of the population. They will make allusions that the developments in Chisinau are similar to the situation in Ukraine before the start of the war,” stated the political pundit.
According to the expert, Russia will try to influence the results of the November 5 local elections by disseminating narrative against the ruling party of Moldova.
“The number of Moldovans working in the Russian Federation has decreased considerably starting from the pandemic period, owing to the restrictions, and this phenomenon intensified after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine as the sanctions against Russia affect also the way in which the workers can transfer money to their families. Russia will try to limit the number of PAS’s victories in the local elections in favor of the pro-Russian opposition. Russia banks a lot on the hybrid warfare as it is efficient. Russia counts on aspects of disinformation, on the use of third persons or entities that would contribute to promoting particular narratives. That’s why Russia does not spend millions of dollars to contribute to the country’s development, as the West does, but uses hybrid war elements that enable it to obtain results faster and more efficiently in the countries in which it has geopolitical interests. The Republic of Moldova should be ready for any hybrid war instrument that Russia can use,” noted Dionis Cenușă.
The public debate entitled “Diplomatic parity and its price” was the 287th installment of IPN’s project “Developing Political Culture through Public Debates” that is supported by the Hanns Seidel Foundation of Germany.
