Crisis feels like at home in Moldova, IDIS

In Moldova, the crisis feels like at home and occurs on all levels. This is the conclusion of the experts of the Institute for Development and Social Initiative Viitorul, published in the 16th issue of the Economic Monitor for Q2-09, a publication of analyses and quarterly forecasts, Info-Prim Neo reports. “Although we tried to be optimistic in our forecasts, this is the saddest Monitor ever”, said IDIS expert Veaceslav Ionita. Moldova will be affected by the crisis worser than any other country in the region. “In 2009 we'll witness the steepest decline in the GDP, up to 12.5 percent. Some 200,000 Moldovans will be jobless openly or indirectly”, said Ionita. Earlier Moldovan Senior Deputy Prime Minister Igor Dodon said the GDP will shrink by 5 percent at the most, while the IMF predicted the figure to stand at 9 percent. The most spectacular dip – of 63 percent – was registered in the amount of cargo handled in the first 4 months. “The industry experiences free fall. The development pace of the branch will be lower than in 2001. The losses incurred in January through April already amounted to 25.7 percent and will climb to 36-37 percent by the end of the year. And this happens with our stocks full”, said Victor Parlicov, also an expert with IDIS. The biggest problem is the low demand for the Moldovan production. Particularly affected were the construction industry (-48.3%) imports of goods and services (-35.8%) and exports (-29,3%). Another important loss for the country's economy is the reduction of the money mass by 4 billion lei. The national budget for this year will suffer a shortfall of some 26 percent. “The authorities will face difficulty in making welfare payments and in paying salaries to budget-funded earners. Some 100,000 employees in the real sector will lose their jobs. The budget deficit this year will be of 5 billion lei”, IDIS expert Sergiu Gaibu said. Asked about the causes of these gloomy outlooks, Veaceslav Ionita said “ Since 2003-2004 until present the Government has had a single concern, how to spend money, I mean the annual surplus to the budget generated by remittances from the Moldovans working abroad. And it hasn't offered leverages to attract financing for closing the budget gaps”. Speaking about the anti-crisis program launched by the Government, Victor Parlicov said it is a mere plan of intentions, a political manifesto. “Only two real things exist in this program: the liberalization of exports and imports, and the financing of the real sector with 600 million lei. The rest of the plans contradict each other. There a big chances that the competition for this financing will be won by the public budget and not by companies, as it should be if we want to redress the national economy”, said Parlicov.