“Therefore, we must accept that such developments are extremely complex and it is good to avoid getting into speculation. And Russkii Mir lovers must understand that those who provoke aggressive wars cannot avoid the harmful effects of their own actions, including demographical ones...”
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Preliminary data
Almost 2/3 of the period of time allocated for conducting the population and housing census - April 8 to July 7, 2024 - elapsed. Preliminary information, made public by the director general of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Oleg Cara, shows that about 70% of the estimated total of dwellings were visited and 2.167 people were counted.
The last month of the census was to be dedicated to checks, but, given that about 25-30% of the dwellings haven’t been yet visited, we can expect that the number of counted people, with usual residence, will be within the limits of the estimates made by the NBS for the previous years – about 2.5 million people.
Comparison of statistical data with academic estimates and forecasts
The ongoing census is a necessary exercise conducted as part of a world round set by the United Nations (UN) for the member states, in 2015-2024. The results of the 2024 census should serve as statistical reference points for estimating the socioeconomic indicators of the development of the Republic of Moldova. Unfortunately, the conduct of the census is accompanied by disinformation attacks and political speculation. In this regard, there is no doubt that once the census deadline expires and the publication of processed data begins, we will witness all kinds of manipulative interpretations.
Certainly, for now, it is important that the 2024 census be carried out, at least, more professionally than the 2014 census, which was followed by an extensive research: Analysis of the Population Situation in the Republic of Moldova, which was conducted in 2016 with the support of the UN Population Fund by the Center for Demographic Research (CDR). The given study was approved by the Scientific Council of the National Institute for Economic Research of the Academy of Sciences of Moldova (ASM). Respectively, the conclusions and possible scenarios based on the latter, referring to demographic developments in the country, are extremely useful to understand what we can expect in the future.
Therefore, the main conclusion of the CDR research, conducted in 2016, was that between 2000 and 2015, the population of the Republic of Moldova decreased by about 424,000 people, with the economic and political uncertainty being the main cause that entailed:
- population decline, which cannot be stopped, but can be reduced in intensity;
- mass emigration – decisive factor of population evolution;
- Population losses due to migration have become extremely worrying.
Based on these deductions, the CDR researchers developed three scenarios for developments up to 2035 – positive, medium and landmark. By all appearances, we are now witnessing the landmark scenario that predicted that the population in 2024 will be 2.5 million inhabitants – exactly what we currently have, while by 2035 – about 2.1 million.
Sample political speculations on demographic developments
As it was already mentioned, political speculations on the demographic developments are in full swing. The opposition of the Bloc of Communists and Socialists (BCS) excels in this respect. The BCS representatives are sounding the alarm about a possible demographic catastrophe. Attacking the ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), the BCS representatives note that “in the past three years, Moldova’s population has decreased by over 130,000 citizens”, ignoring objective factors highlighted by CDR research. Why do they do this? Because the statistical data prove beyond doubt that the massive emigration of the population from the Republic of Moldova began during the rule of the Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova (PCRM). Thus, during the second term in power of the PCRM (2005-2009), the country remained without about 170,000 people. That is the annual rate of emigration during the second term of the PCRM coincides with the annual rate of emigration during the PAS government. Obviously, it cannot be that the same rate of emigration in the case of the PCRM government was beneficial, while in the case of the PAS is catastrophic.
In fact, during the second term of the PCRM government, the demographic developments were much worse than the current ones because they provoked pretexts for further emigration – the unification of separated families. There are other details worth being noted. First of all, during the PCRM government, most of the citizens emigrated illegally, taking unimaginable risks. Secondly, during the PCRM government, the economic and security situation in the region was favorable for the socioeconomic development of the Republic of Moldova. However, the citizens took their fate into their own hands and left the country en masse. Especially since in that period, 2001-2009, in all neighboring countries and in the region, there was a sharp economic growth, the trade relations of the states in the region flourished, etc. And the most important noteworthy factor is that there was no war in the region and no energy blackmail. In contrast, we currently have Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, which was preceded by energy blackmail from Russia against neighboring and EU states, with five-fold price increases, destruction of logistics chains, etc. Thirdly, after the liberalization of the visa regime with the EU, migration from the Republic of Moldova, with rates similar to those during the PCRM rule, takes place naturally, aiming also to reunite families that were forced to separate during the PCRM government. So, the BCS’s political speculations are easy to combat, if one uses the results of scientific research conducted under the auspices of the UN and confirmed by the ASM.
European integration confirmed emigration flow reduction potential
The BCS representatives are not the only ones who are concerned about the demographic catastrophe. Among those who are extremely worried is the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Moldova (PLDM), Vlad Filat, who a year ago warned President Maia Sandu about the demographic catastrophe. In fact, as it was mentioned, the demographic catastrophe is nothing more than a landmark scenario anticipated by the CDR research, that is an objective phenomenon. However, the PLDM leader’s concern deserves attention, especially since he trusts statistical and sociological data. Here it is important to note that after the PLDM leader was installed as prime minister, the annual migration rate decreased by about 20% in 2009-2013! The interpretation of this phenomenon should be attributed to the process of European integration, in particular the visa liberalization.
However, there are other factors that impact the temporary decrease in the annual migration rate. The fact is that after the dismissal of the PLDM leader from the position of prime minister in 2013 for alleged acts of corruption, the emigration rate in 2014 decreased by another 20%! Therefore, the effects of the European integration, combined with the effects of the fight against corruption, can produce immediate effects. Surely, it might be a mere coincidence. What matters is that after the announcement of the robbing of the banking system in 2014, the migration trend returned to the basis that was laid during the PCRM government. Perhaps it’s the effect of the unfulfilled promise to get the rat out of its burrow.
Conclusions
Political speculation on demographic developments is dangerous. The analysis of migration processes must be based on well-founded research. For example, according to the analyses conducted under UN auspices, the whole of Central and Eastern Europe is subject to migration processes that are due to complex causes. Estimates based on the mentioned analyses show that for the Republic of Moldova, the forecasts until 2050 are not at all reassuring, whoever governs the country. According to trends that already took shape, our country could lose about 15% of its population, just like Romania.
Even more alarming seem to be the demographic developments for a number of EU states in Central and Eastern Europe, such as Bulgaria and the Baltic States. Curiously, highly developed countries, such as Japan or Italy, are also facing demographic developments that are not at all encouraging. Therefore, we must accept that such developments are extremely complex and it is good to avoid getting into speculation. And Russkii Mir lovers must also understand that those who provoke aggressive wars cannot avoid the harmful effects of their own actions, including demographics.
Under the mentioned circumstances, for the political class of the Republic of Moldova and for the citizens, the best solution is to contribute to the successful conduct of the 2024 census so as to have a solid statistical basis useful for designing the future of society.