Chisinau's attempt to find a solution for Transnistria through direct dialogue with the Kremlin creates a dangerous situation for Moldova, experts say

The attempt of the official Chisinau to find a solution to the Transnistria issue in a direct dialogue with the Kremlin, ignoring the other participants in the five-plus-two setting, creates an explosive situation for Moldova, says a group of experts, joined under the umbrella of the Public Policy Institute's (IPP) “Expert Council on the Transnistrian Issue Settlement”. The members of the [National Expert Council] (NEC) expressed on Tuesday their joint view on the current developments in the Transnistrian issue. One of the negative scenarios predicted by the experts is that Russia could propose the signing of a document unacceptable for Moldova. After rejection, Russia could accuse Moldova of being uncooperative and of ignoring the previously reached agreements, which could serve as an excuse for the Kremlin to recognize Transnistria after the 2009 elections. “Simulating an interest for dialogue with the Moldovan government, the Kremlin has subordinated a great part of Moldova's foreign policy, particularly in what concerns relations with NATO and GUAM. Russia has preserved the possibility to continue its 'tacit expansion' policy in Transnistria and transformed the other participants in the five-plus-two format, ..., into simple onlookers”, a NEC synthesis reads. The NEC considers that there are no premises today to achieve a rapid and viable solution for the Transnistrian conflict. [IPP program director Oazu Nantoi] said that Russia has never been interested in a 'package agreement' proposed by Chisinau. Nantoi went on to add that the Russian Federation has never abandoned the idea of replacing the Republic of Moldova with a new joint state, be it federation or confederation, formed by two equal sides, Moldova and Transnistria, which would enjoy a special status and veto rights. The experts advise the Moldovan leadership to be prudent in order to avoid being trapped into losing situations. Keeping the conflict frozen and preserving the five-plus-two setting, even if it doesn't seem very promising at the moment, could be a protection mechanism for Moldova. [IPP executive director Arcadie Barbarosie] suggests that the authorities should work more in Moldova than in Moscow or Brussels, so as to make this territory attractive to the residents of the Transnistrian region. “Otherwise, we risk losing them, because the propaganda works very well there”, he said. The negotiations in the two-plus-one format and the lack of transparency in conducting the talks decreases Moldova's chances of progressing in its relationship with the European Union, stated [Eugen Revenco, director of the Moldovan-Lithuanian Foundation “European Integration Study Center”]. He believes it is crucial that the EU plays a more important role in the talks on the conflict. “Whereas Russia negotiates at the level of the head of state, EU's contribution is at a much lower level. We hope the EU will reconsider its perspectives about this region”, said Revenco. The Project “Expert Council on the Transnistrian Issue Settlement” is carried out by IPP with the financial support of the Black Sea Trust Found for Regional Cooperation. The experts will be meeting once in two months. It is expected that these meetings will be joined by experts from the left side of the Nistru, as well.