Chisinau residents are more pro-European than the rest of population? Op-Ed

Op-Ed
	The results of the European integration are more powerfully felt in Chisinau and less in the rest of the country. This favors greatly the Russian propaganda and Euro-skeptical rhetoric outside the capital city…
Dionis Cenuşa

The public attitude to the European Union is more positive in the capital city than in the rest of the country. Polls confirm that the pro-European sympathies prevail in Chisinau and are poorly rooted outside the capital city. The most recent poll by the International Republican Institute (IRI), which was carried out between March 11 and 25, 2016, shows that there is a difference of about 13% between the share of the pro-EU sympathies in Chisinau and that in the rest of the country (with a margin of sampling error of 2.8%). The main causes for this imbalance reside in the limited access to high quality information about the EU at the local level, concentration of the pro-European promoters in Chisinau and poor immunity to the anti-European propaganda outside it.

Chisinau is more pro-European, while districts are more pro-Russian

It’s well known that the people in districts have an inclination towards Russia rather than towards the EU.

Thus, according to the IRI poll, 56% of the respondents in Chisinau are in favor of an ‘economic union’ with the EU, while at country level this figure is 43%. There is a similar tendency when the perception of Russia is measured. The pro-Russian attitude in Chisinau is by 12% smaller than at the local level (32% against 44%).

There is also a visible discrepancy when the EU and Russia are regarded as a partner or as a threat from political and economic viewpoints. Thus, the opinion about Russia is more positive at the local level, while that about the EU is more positive in Chisinau (See the table below).

Distribution of answers at country level and in Chisinau, %

Source: IRI, March 2016

Indirectly, the poll shows that many citizens, in particular those from regions, do not correctly judge the liberalization of trade with the EU. Public opinion, including outside Chisinau, is very indulgent towards Russia. It is paradoxical, but the public overlooks Moscow’s political decision to penalize Moldova for developing its relations with the EU (including the ban on the import of wine imposed in September 2013).

Causes for the discrepancy

The opinion differences in Chisinau and the rest of the country derive from a number of circumstances. First of all, we must admit that the access to information from which the capital city benefits is wider than in the case of districts. This refers both to the availability of the positive information and of criticism about the EU and Russia. As a result, having access to more sources of information, the population in Chisinau favors consciously the EU and the European integration process rather than Russia. The people in districts have reduced access to high quality information, but also broader access to pro-Russian and, respectively, Euro-skeptical information.

Secondly, the public in Chisinau is closer to the decisions concerning the European integration process at the national level. The intensity of contacts with the players involved directly or indirectly in the implementation of the European agenda is more powerful in the capital city than at the local level. Also, an absolute majority of active promoters of the pro-European views (journalists, the academic community, nongovernmental organizations, etc.) are concentrated in Chisinau. At the local level, the pro-European rhetoric is deficient and, if it is promoted, this is most often done by discredited political parties.

Last but not least, the population in Chisinau is more pro-European because it has more economic and social possibilities, either associated or not with the EU, than the people in the rest of the country. That’s why the poor immunity to the anti-European propaganda in districts results also from the low number of opportunities for the population. The Euro-skeptical perception at the local level is related to the benefits of the integration into the EU, which are for now perceived there as something distant. Therefore, the population in districts is easier influenced by the Russian propaganda and becomes easier disappointed in the EU, which remains yet unknown.

Instead of conclusion…

The pro-European sympathies in districts are more vulnerable than in the capital city, which benefits from more access to high quality information about the EU and about Russia. Also, the population in Chisinau is in the immediate proximity of the active promoters of the pro-European agenda (journalists, academic community, NGOs, etc.). Therefore, the results of the European integration are more powerfully felt in Chisinau and less in the rest of the country. This favors greatly the Russian propaganda and Euro-skeptical rhetoric outside the capital city. 
 

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