Russia wanted to show who is a master at home, which is who controls the Kerch Strait, executive director of the Institute for Strategic Initiatives Vlad Kulminski stated, commenting on the conflict that arouse between Russian maritime border guards and Ukrainian sailors in the Kerch Strait on November 26. The issue was developed in the talk show “Politics of Natalia Morari” on TV8 channel, IPN reports.
According to the expert, there are two possible scenarios in this situation: geopolitical and electoral. Russia decided its sphere of geopolitical interests that includes Moldova and Ukraine, the war in Georgia and the events in Donbass being a proof of this. By attacking Ukrainian vessels, Russia made it clear it will not allow the West to enter the sphere of influence shaped by it. For Russia, this was a very important moment to show to the world that it has control over the Kerch Strait.
At the same time, Vlad Kulminski said presidential elections will take place in Ukraine and the electoral situation for the current President Petro Poroshenko is extremely unfavorable. This incident could be used by him to gain electoral advantages.
Analyst Vitalii Andrievski said the President of Ukraine invented nothing new and simply used the created situation. This will not directly affect the upcoming presidential elections in Ukraine as the martial law imposed in the neighboring country after the November 25 incident will last for 30 days only.
The analyst noted there is no guarantee that the incident in the Kerch Strait is not an episode only. “Why did Russia react so painfully? Because Ukraine tried to establish a military base in Mariupol. There could be plans to capture the regions Mariupol and Berdeansk and not to allow the creation of a military base at any cost,” stated Vitalii Andrievski.
The Kerch Strait incident occurred on November 25, 2018 when a Russian cargo ship stopped three Ukrainian Navy vessels from passing under the Kerch Strait Bridge. Russia accused the Ukrainian ships of illegally entering its territorial waters. According to Russia, Russian officers repeatedly asked the Ukrainian vessels to leave Russia’s territorial waters. Since Ukrainian Navy refused, Russia fired on and seized three Ukrainian vessels off the coast of annexed Crimea, injuring three servicemen. Ukraine described the incident as a provocation. President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko signed a decree on the martial law and Parliament approved it the next day, imposing the martial law in the regions that border Russia and the Transnistrian region of the Republic of Moldova for a 30-day period. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Moldova expressed its concern about the tensions in the Azov Sea and the Kerch Strait.
