The weak internal demand and the not very high food prices will continue to exert disinflation pressure. However, the National Bank of Moldova (BNM) anticipates that the inflation will rise slightly in the fourth quarter of this year and the first half of next year following the effects of the stimulatory monetary policy, BNM Governor Dorin Dragutanu said in a news conference, quoted by IPN.
The BNM forecasts an annual inflation rate of 4.5% for 2013, by 0.2 percentage points lower than the rate projected in July. For 2014 the inflation rate is projected at 4.9%, by 0.9 percentage points lower than anticipated earlier. In 2015 the inflation is expected to slow down and will oscillate between 5% and 3.5%.
The updated forecast of the BNM shows that the regulated prices will have a greater influence on the total inflation. Fuel prices will continue to have a minor influence, compared with the energy shocks of 2010 and 2011. The economies of a number of countries that are Moldova’s trade partners may also affect the inflation rate. The GDP in the euro area is projected to decline by 0.3% in 2013 and to increase by 0.9% in 2014. The economic growth in Russia has slowed down. The GDP there in 2013 is expected to be 2%, while in 2014 – 2.6%.
