Voter manipulation will be the main instrument that will be used by the power to promote its candidate and to stimulate the other pseudo-candidates, to diminish the chances of the opponents and to denigrate the candidates of the opposition. The lie will be the main instrument used in the election campaign both on TV and on social networking sites, stated the director of the Institute for Public Policy Arcadie Barbarosie.
Contacted by IPN, Arcadie Barbarosie said it will be very hard for the voters to choose between wheat and weeds as it is known that a lie repeated for many times makes the author believe in it. “However, the government must realize that it cannot endlessly lie to the voters. The people are not as foolish as the current government, and not only it, considers. An example is the pseudo-meetings of support organized by the PDM, which ended in a resounding failure,” he stated.
According to Arcadie Barbarosie, bribery, empty promises and electoral gifts will be massively present in the current election campaign and an important segment of voters can be convinced to vote ‘how they should’. The high level of poverty, political culture and tolerance are important factors that determine such behavior in voters and politicians too. The fact that justice does not work and the state institutions are politically controlled as well as the general juridical nihilism are the factors that stimulate this behavior in politicians and voters.
The commentator also said that we have a mainly patriarchal society that is still influenced by the past regime. “I think this fact determine significantly the political culture and the electoral behavior of the people. The voters long for an iron hand, a master who will bring things in the country in order. Our people are afraid or do not want to be put in the situation to choose,” stated the director of the Institute for Public Policy.
Arcadie Barbarosie considers in Moldova the elections are not political, but geopolitical. Therefore, the upcoming presidential elections will not be very different from the parliamentary one. “The voters who are oriented to the East will vote mainly for Dodon and Chubashenko. There are no other real opponents on this segment. Instead, there are a large number of competitors on the European segment of voters. Of these, Maia Sandu and Andrei Nastase are the most important ones. Marian Lupu can become important mainly owing to the use of administrative resources and the media ones possessed now by the power, while the other candidates have the task of distracting the voters and easing the way of the candidate of the power,” he stated.
Opinion polls carried out after the elections of 2014 show that the geopolitical orientation of the voters in Moldova remains practically at the same level. The voters are profoundly disappointed by the quality of government and, according to Arcadie Barbarosie, there is a high probability that the ruling parties, or more exactly their candidates for President, will be penalized.
The polls conducted by the Institute for Public Policy reveal important differences between the options of the voters from the country and those from the diaspora, more precisely the options of those who experienced migration. Those who emigrated to the East tend to support the parties oriented to the East, while the migrants from the West tend to support the parties oriented to the West. However, the electoral behavior of the Moldovans who migrated once is similar to that of all the Moldovans.
The Public Opinion Barometer shows the voters older than 60 and those with a high level of education are more predisposed to take part in the presidential elections. The voters from urban areas area slightly less predisposed to take part in the parliamentary elections. There are no significant differences as regards electoral activism by gender.
Asked what kind of President we can expect depending on the voter’s profile, Arcadie Barbarosie said it is very hard to make forecasts when the decision of the voters can be greatly manipulated and influenced by electoral presents. The rules of the game are not respected and the electoral competitors can be removed from the race based on false arguments. The signatures in favor of candidates can be collected fraudulently. Furthermore, there is a great probability of vote rigging. “If we judge by polls, the voters want an honest, non-corrupt and powerful President (nostalgia for an iron hand), who would bring things in the country in order and would find the stolen US$1 billion,” stated the commentator.
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The article forms part of the IPN series “Profile of the voter: who votes the President”.
