Parliamentary elections will take place in Moldova on November 30. Some of the political parties have already started, officially or not, electoral actions, while some haven't. IPN Agency set out to sketch the “portraits” of political parties as recorded by society's perception, before the official start of the electoral campaign. We consider this to be a useful exercise for Moldovan voters, who will gain additional and concentrated information that they may find useful on the day of elections, and also for the parties themselves, who will get some hints on how to improve their image. This portrait might also help to better understand what one or another Moldovan party wants to be and what it really is. To this goal, many experts have been asked to comment on the parties' chance to make it into the next Parliament, the way they fulfilled their previous electoral promises, the possible coalitions, topics, tactics and strategies they might employ to get the voters' attention. Political parties are presented in order of the number of seats they hold in the current Legislative and of the results obtained during the previous parliamentary elections in 2010.
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The Antimafia People's Movement is employing negative messages, of the sort that everything is corrupt in the country and controlled by oligarchs, and as such attracts only desperate voters. The party cannot win the elections until society develops zero tolerance towards corruption.
Victor Juc, of the Institute for Legal and Political Research of the Moldovan Academy of Sciences, says that the movement was created artificially by other political forces who found a charismatic leader to head it. However, the party was designed otherwise and its results have been unimpressive. The expert thinks that only desperate voters will respond to the party's negative message, that everything is wrong and that all are mafiosi and oligarchs.
Juc expects Antimafia to rely on its anticorruption crusade in the electoral campaign. “They are sometimes trying various actions, they are active on the Internet. But I think their chances are nil because Moldovan society is yet to reach the level of zero tolerance towards corruption. Perhaps in Romania, where the oligarchs are being put on trial, they would have more success”, he said.
The expert says that Antimafia's messages haven't materialized, just like in the Communists' case, who failed to carry out a velvet revolution, this movement failed to create “the second republic” it promotes. Victor Juc admits that Antimafia members are fighting corruption, but there are no guarantees that should they come to power, they will be correct and honest. “In Moldova, an overly negative message can only get so many voters, not enough to pass the electoral threshold. Antimafia and other parties want to create a third force, but I don't see any third force on the horizon yet”, concluded Juc.
Denis Cenusa, political expert, agrees that this party won't make it into the Parliament this year, because it's still growing. The thinks the Antimafia Movement has some voters, but its political career is too young and it failed to achieve a solid position on the political landscape. Cenusa also pointed out to some contradictory elements within the party, such as its leader Sergiu Mocanu, former adviser to Communist leader Vladimir Voronin. The analyst expects Antimafia to denounce corruption and influence peddling scandals before the elections, with its preferential target being Vlad Plahotniuc, first vice president of the Democratic Party.
Political analyst Olga Nicolenco thinks Antimafia looks irascible and irritated. According to her, the only way for some of its members to gain MP seats is on the list of another party.
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As part of this campaign, IPN has already published a review of the experts' opinions on the Communists' Party, the Liberal-Democratic Party, the Democratic Party, the Liberal Party, the Liberal Reformists Party, the Renaissance Party, the Socialists' Party, Democratic Action Party and the National Liberal Party.
Mariana Galben, IPN
