The annual inflation rate is expected to reach its peak of 8.5% in the first quarter of 2025, while the lowest value of 4.3% is projected for the third quarter of 2026. The average annual inflation rate will be 7.3% in 2025 and 4.7% in 2026, according to data presented by Petru Rotaru, First Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Moldova (NBM), during a press conference, IPN reports.
According to the First Deputy Governor, in Q4 2024, the annual inflation rate continued the upward trend that began in mid-2023. It rose from 5.2% in September to 7% in December, exceeding the upper limit of the inflation target range at the end of the previous year. This increase was driven by regulated price dynamics, particularly adjustments to the network gas tariff.
“The average annual inflation rate will be 7.3% in 2025 and 4.7% in 2026. The annual inflation rate is influenced by the positive contribution of regulated prices, food prices, core inflation, and to a lesser extent, fuel prices this year”, explained Petru Rotaru.
According to the NBM, core inflation is expected to slightly decrease in the first three quarters of 2025 and then remain relatively stable until the end of the forecast horizon. The annual rate of food prices will increase in the first half of 2025 but is projected to gradually decline thereafter until the end of the forecast period.
